4.10.08

GOP dread: Dems could hit 60 Senate seats


Jim VandeHei, Mike Allen Jim Vandehei, Mike Allen Sat Oct 4, 6:18 pm ET

The possibility that Democrats will build a muscular, 60-seat Senate majority is looking increasing plausible, with new polls showing a powerful surge for the party’s candidates in Minnesota, Kentucky and other states.

A poll out Friday shows Sen. Norm Coleman could now easily lose his Minnesota seat to comedian-turned-candidate Al Franken. A Colorado race that initially looked like a nail-biter has now broken decisively for the Democrats. A top official in the McCain camp told us Sen. Elizabeth Dole is virtually certain to lose in conservative North Carolina.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky has seen his race tighten dangerously close over the past week — and Democrats are considering moving more money into the state very soon. And there is even talk that Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss is beatable in conservative Georgia after backing the economic bailout package opposed by many voters.

“Before the economic crisis, we had a number of races moving our way,” said Matthew Miller, communications director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “But now we’re seeing Republican numbers plummet.” GOP officials largely agree.

Senate races don’t grab national attention like the White House battle does. But if these trends hold, the Senate outcome could be almost as important to Washington governance as the presidential winner will be. It takes 60 votes to pass anything through the slow-moving Senate. So the closer the Democrats get to the number, the more power they will have next year to put their stamp on the country.

Democrats say their candidates are benefiting from the wipeout on Wall Street with a single message in every region of the country: “These are the Bush policies coming home to roost.” Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, told Politico: “Americans know that in economically difficult times, we need a change from George Bush’s policies. And incumbents who have voted for six years with Bush, up and down the line, are having a difficult time trying to convince the electorate that they’ve changed their spots."

The trends reflect the growing fear of among top Republicans that their prospects could crater on Nov. 4, with Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) running weakly at the top of the ticket, President Bush as unpopular as ever and the economic crisis serving as a last-minute propellant for the change message of Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.).

With Republicans fearing the loss of 17 to 21 House seats, January 2009 could bring Democrats a dominance over Washington that neither party has experienced since the Reagan years.

The current Senate lineup is 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans and two independents who caucus with Democrats.

Democrats need to pick up nine seats to hit 60 votes. Republicans have been bracing for big losses, but it wasn’t until the past few days that they have started to privately sound the alarms that the bottom could fall out on Election Day.

GOP Senate candidates are getting pounded by the same waves of public discontent over the economy and Bush that could sink McCain, and it shows in polls from coast to coast.

Republicans fully expect to lose Virginia and New Mexico. They think there is a pretty strong chance that they also lose Colorado, Alaska, New Hampshire, Oregon and North Carolina.

This means everyone should keep their eyes on Minnesota, Kentucky, Mississippi and Georgia over the final month of this campaign to see if a wave is coming.

Several Republican strategists close to the White House said there is increasing fear among party leaders about a bloodbath. But they added that they hope to keep losses to as few as five or six seats, rather than the nine that Democrats would need to gain to reach the magic number of 60 seats.

These strategists hope the Minnesota poll out Saturday overstates Franken’s strength, because it was taken at the height of turmoil over the bailout bill that Bush finally signed Friday.

“It reflects a lot of intense unhappiness that will fade as the market restores some equilibrium,” a Republican official said.

But that same timing is very dangerous for Sen. Gordon Smith (R-Ore.), because his state has mail voting with a heavy early vote, meaning he has less time to recover from angst about the Wall Street wipeout.

Republicans say they have become more optimistic in recent days about Sen. John Sununu (R-N.H.), who had been considered one of the party's most endangered incumbents.

Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) will certainly lose if he is convicted in a corruption trial now under way in Washington but will probably win if he is acquitted, the strategists said.

Top Republicans say they have no hope for Dole in North Carolina. “There’s no point in even counting the votes,” said a top McCain official.

Republicans said they hope to make up for one loss by persuading Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.) to caucus with them. He has campaigned vigorously for McCain, and Democratic Party leaders have vowed to punish him.

One indication of the Republicans’ mood: They’re already looking past this grim election season.
“2010 looks pretty good for us to pick up three or four or five seats pretty easily,” the McCain official said.

Push to Return Felons to Voter Rolls Could Benefit Obama


Nonprofit groups and activists are pushing to register felons to vote this November.
AP
Saturday, October 04, 2008
RICHMOND, Va. -- Undaunted by the heat, James Bailey spent his late-summer afternoons walking Virginia's bleakest neighborhoods on the hunt for ex-cons -- each a potential voter who might cast the decisive ballot in this hotly contested state.

Finding them isn't the hard part. It's getting them to admit that a past mistake has kept them from the ballot box.

"People are really, really reluctant to say, 'I lost my rights to vote,"' Bailey said of his quest, which continued in the run-up to Monday's registration deadline in Virginia for the November election.

Nationally, there are roughly 4 million released felons whose convictions have cost them the right to vote at least temporarily, if not permanently. To return to the ballot box, felons must negotiate suffrage laws that vary from state to state, in many cases working with election officials who can be both unfamiliar with the law and hostile to former convicts seeking to register.

Such challenges matter little to Bailey and others trying to return former criminals to voter rolls, an effort they consider crucial in light of the results of the past two presidential elections: A shift of a few hundred votes in Florida in 2000 would have changed the outcome of the presidential race, and the results in 2004 came down to a margin of 119,000 votes in Ohio.

The nonprofit groups and individual activists making the push on felons' behalf agree the effort is broader this year than in previous elections, even if they aren't necessarily making a coordinated push. They expect that effort to benefit Barack Obama more than John McCain, given that the population of former felons is disproportionately black.

Obama has co-sponsored a Senate measure that would allow all ex-felons to vote, but his campaign isn't directly targeting ex-felons for registration. His campaign does include relevant info on its Web site and educates volunteers so they can explain state laws to those who may not realize they have the right to vote, said spokesman Kevin Griffis.

"All we're trying to do is make sure that, if someone is eligible, that they know their rights and that if they want to vote, they can take part," Griffis said Tuesday. "I think there's a lot of misinformation out there. Even people who may have been guilty of a misdemeanor feel like the felony laws apply to them and say they can't vote."

McCain has said states should decide whether felons have voting rights. But he personally believes ex-felons should forfeit certain rights when they commit a serious crime and that the right to vote should be restored only on a case-by-case basis -- much like Virginia's process.
Roughly 13 percent of black men nationwide have lost the right to vote, according to the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University's School of Law, which advocates the reform of felon voting rights. Black ministers, civic leaders and activists believe they are a rich source of votes for Obama.

"Of course I would go with Barack," said Deshawn Tatem, a dreadlocked drug dealer-turned-activist from Chesapeake, Va. But he's never cast a ballot. "Right at 18, I caught the felony." Tatem has never made the time to fill out an application to restore his voter rights, a request that would have to be approved by the governor. That means there's no way he'll be able to vote in November.

In Florida, where a new rule means more than 115,000 former felons who completed their sentences are now able to vote, civil rights attorney Reggie Mitchell said he's nonpartisan when he calls felons at home to give them information about registering to vote. But he also acknowledges the obvious.
Blacks represent "about 40 percent of the people who've gotten their rights lost and restored," Mitchell said. "With an African-American running, and such a critical mass, this could have a tremendous impact."

Kenneth Glasgow served 14 years on robbery and drug charges in Alabama. Now a pastor, Glasgow launched a voter registration drive inside the prisons in Alabama, where state law allows voting by felons convicted of lesser crimes such as possession of small amounts of drugs, battery or attempted burglary -- even while still serving a sentence.

Glasgow, a Democrat, estimates as many as 70,000 felons in Alabama might be eligible to vote but haven't registered. Bringing them to the polls, he said, has the potential to alter the state's political landscape.

"It's not a black-white thing," Glasgow said. "It's that people will see Republicans standing against having people's rights restored while the Democrats aren't."

The state Department of Corrections halted Glasgow's registration drive after two days because of complaints from the chairman of the Alabama Republican Party that registering inmates without adequate monitoring could lead to voter fraud. Fewer than 80 inmates filled out registration forms. The NAACP Legal Defense Fund has filed suit challenging the prison commissioner's decision to stop the registration drive.

Only two states -- Maine and Vermont -- place no limits on voting due to a criminal conviction; even prison inmates can cast a ballot. Kentucky and Virginia are the only two states that permanently bar felons from voting, although the governors of those states can restore voting rights to individuals.

Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear streamlined the process in March, and has since restored the rights of more than 740 released convicts. Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine promised to fast-track applications for voter restoration that his office received by Aug. 1, adding three people to his staff to process applications before Monday's registration deadline.

Applications in Virginia jumped from 76 for all of July 2007 to 138 in a single week this summer. Kaine, the governor for nearly three years, had restored the rights of 2,633 felons as of Monday, according to his spokesman, Gordon Hickey.

Laws in the other 46 states are varied, some of them a relic of the Jim Crow era, according to the Brennan Center. Eight states permanently bar felons convicted of certain crimes from voting, while the others restore the right after a sentence is completed, including parole, or as soon as an inmate is released from prison.

Faulkner Fox, who leads organizing efforts for the group "Durham for Obama" in North Carolina, said volunteers there frequently explain to shocked ex-felons that they can register to vote.
The confusion isn't limited to felons. Researchers at the Brennan Center and the American Civil Liberties Union interviewed election officials in 23 states from 2003 to this year. In a report released Wednesday, the groups said many officials in those states didn't understand voter eligibility rules for felons or how they can register to vote.

Among the problems: officials telling those convicted of misdemeanors they had lost the right to vote, failing to distinguish between probation and parole, and illegally demanding documentation.
The researchers also found election officials who said they wouldn't help a felon register, which concerns civil rights groups such as the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People.

"We still find election officials at the polls in too many cases only ask African-American males if (they) have a felony offense," said Hilary Shelton, director of the NAACP Washington bureau.
The confusion works both ways. In some cases, the researchers found election officials willing to register felons who were not yet eligible to cast a ballot under that state's law -- a potential case of criminal voter fraud.

The ACLU, the NAACP and others support a nationwide standard that would restore voting rights to all inmates once they leave prison. "Once a single local election official misinforms a citizen that he is not eligible to vote because of a past conviction, it is unlikely that citizen will ever follow up or make a second inquiry," the ACLU and Brennan Center report said. "The citizen will mistakenly believe that he is ineligible to vote for years, decades, or maybe the rest of his life."

But getting the information right, and then registering felons, isn't a guarantee of results. Tatem, the former felon from Virginia, isn't sure how much of a difference people like him will make.

"If they got their rights tomorrow, most of them probably still wouldn't vote," he said. "When you've been caged for so long, you can leave that cage open and some folk won't go through."

3.10.08

Estimates show Palin assets top $1 million

Palins look to land and sea to build wealth; estimates show assets likely top $1 million

SHARON THEIMER and BRETT J. BLACKLEDGE Associated Press Writers

AP
Sarah Palin and her husband have pieced together a uniquely Alaskan income that reached comfortably into six figures even before she became governor, capitalizing on valuable fishing rights, a series of land deals and a patchwork of other ventures to build an above-average lifestyle.

Add up the couple's 2007 income and the estimated value of their property and investments and they appear to be worth at least $1.2 million. That would make the Palins, like Democratic vice presidential rival Joe Biden and his wife Jill, well-off but not nearly as wealthy as multimillionaire couples John and Cindy McCain and, to a lesser extent, Barack and Michelle Obama.

One measure of financial health: While there is a home loan, Palin reported no personal credit card debt on her most recent financial report as Alaska governor. That compares to average household credit card debt among Americans of $9,840 last year.

A more complete picture will come when Sarah Palin outlines her personal finances in federal paperwork in coming days. It will include details of any mortgage debt and at least rough dollar totals for bank accounts and investments.

Palin this week characterized herself as "an everyday, working-class American" who knows how it feels when the stock market takes a hit.

The Palins' total income last year was split almost evenly between Sarah Palin's white-collar job and her husband's blue-collar work. Sarah Palin's salary as governor was $125,000; Todd Palin took in $46,790 as a part-time oil production operator for BP Alaska in Prudhoe Bay, plus $46,265 in commercial fishing income and $10,500 in Iron Dog snowmachine race winnings. These figures do not include nearly $17,000 in per diem payments Palin received for 312 nights spent in her own home since she was elected governor; she also has received $43,490 to cover travel costs for her husband and children.

In addition, each member of the Palin family received $1,654 in state oil royalties paid to all Alaskans.

The Palins' assets seem enviable: a half-million-dollar home on a lake with a float-plane at the dock, two vacation retreats, commercial-fishing rights worth an estimated $50,000 or more and an income last year of at least $230,000. That compares to a median income of $64,333 for Alaskans and $50,740 for Americans in 2007, according to the Census Bureau.

But in Alaska, scarce roads make private planes commonplace, it's typical to spend a month or two fishing commercially, and wilderness acreage is so plentiful the state has sold loads' worth stake-your-claim style. So, it's often the finer points that matter: How old is the airplane? Where exactly is the fishing spot? Is the house on a paved road?

Land itself doesn't necessarily translate to wealth, said Tom Hawkins of Anchorage, who paid about $2,000 for a five-acre parcel miles from the nearest road, best reached by snowmachine.

"I've got a stunning parcel overlooking a river," Hawkins said. "I took my wife to it. And she stood up and looked out at the stunning view and said, 'Dear, what are we going to do with it?'"

The Palins' main residence, a large two-story house on Lake Lucille in Wasilla, draws much of its value from its prime position along a paved road and float-plane accessible lake, said Darcie Salmon, a local real estate agent. He said lakefront land is plentiful in Alaska, but lakefront land along paved roads isn't.

The Palins' home, tucked behind a wooded field, is off Wasilla's main road, Parks Highway, a mostly four-lane road cluttered with restaurants, bars, retail stores, offices, grocery stores and big-box outlets such as Target. A store-bought "no trespassing" sign is posted near the entry to an unmarked, private gravel drive that winds about 100 yards to the lakefront home. A neighbor's property has an old metal gate at its entrance with a sign warning, "Enter at your own risk."

The Palins' four-bedroom, four-bath house, nearly 3,500 square feet, sits on just over two acres behind a tall wood-plank privacy fence that runs along one side of the property. It's one of the newest homes in the Snider subdivision lining Lake Lucille and is assessed at $552,000 — more than twice the value of a neighboring two-acre lot with a much smaller, older wood-frame home.
Todd Palin built the house with friends who were contractors, he said in a recent television interview.

The house is worth substantially more than the Palins' starter home, a three-bedroom, two-bath house house built in 1984 on the far western boundary of Wasilla. The quiet, wooded neighborhood was developed about three miles from the city center, with half-acre lots and space for young families.

In addition to the Lake Lucille home, the Palins own recreational property in two remote areas accessible by plane, all-terrain vehicle or snowmachine.

The Palins invested in five lots along Safari Lake, an undeveloped area near Denali State Park. They bought the property, once owned by the state's Department of Natural Resources and valued at $30,000 in assessment records, with friends Scott and Deborah Richter in 2004 and 2005. The Richters have since divorced.

With other friends, the Palins own a cabin on five acres southwest of Wasilla and the Iditarod National Historic Trail. The land and cabin are assessed at $55,000; property records do not show what the Palins paid for their share.

The Palins own snowmachines and an airplane. Todd Palin has a 1958 Piper float plane that he said has been in his family for about 20 years.

Though old, such planes remain in wide use. Palin's plane would be worth from about $38,000 to $78,000 depending on its condition, said Boyd Newman, owner of West One Aircraft Sales in Caldwell, Idaho.

Other family assets include Todd Palin's shoreside lease and commercial fishing permit to harvest salmon from Bristol Bay each season. Last year, the Palins took in $46,265 commercial fishing for sockeye salmon over about a month.

Todd Palin said he purchased his permit from his grandfather in the 1970s. A limited number of permits and shoreline leases have been issued, and the rights to them are often passed down through families or sold. Holders pay a fee each year to renew them.

Palin's is worth about $30,000, a shoreside lease on Coffee Point, where Palin's set-net site is located, is worth about $20,000, and Palin's skiff and gear are likely worth another $20,000, according to estimates by Paul Piercey, a broker with Dock Street Brokers in Seattle, which handles sales of fishing permits, boats and shoreside leases.

Palin's fishing spot is considered good but not great, Piercey said. And the work is backbreaking. Palin has said he expects to earn 68 cents per pound for this summer's catch.

"When you get up in the morning, your fingers are so swollen that you have to stick them in a bucket of icewater just to get movement back again" and ease the pain, said Hawkins, who fished on Bristol Bay one year.

Hawkins is former chief operating officer of the Bristol Bay Native Corp. and former chief executive of Choggiung Ltd., two native corporations in which Todd Palin, who is part Yup'ik Eskimo, is a shareholder, along with the Palin children. The Palins are among about 8,000 shareholders in BBNC and among about 1,200 shareholders in Choggiung Limited, Hawkins said.
Sarah Palin reported Todd Palin collecting $266 and each child $21 in dividends last year from BBNC, and a total of $16.50 from Choggiung Limited.

Todd Palin is still a BP employee. Company spokesman Steve Rinehart declined to describe Palin's status beyond confirming his employment. Palin's schedule is one week on, one week off, Palin said in a recent television interview.

Palin previously left BP in the 1990s to run Valley Polaris, a snowmachine, four-wheeler and watercraft dealership he pursued with a friend and business partner. They sold the business in 1997; public records do not show whether it was at a profit or a loss. At the time, Sarah Palin was earning about $61,000 a year as Wasilla mayor.

The Polaris dealership was among three business ventures the Palins explored; the others never took off. Palin's financial disclosure reports do not say how much if any money the Palins invested in the business ventures or real estate, or what if any profit they made on sales.

Sarah Palin formed a consulting business called "Rouge Cou" — French for redneck — but didn't pursue it.

The Palins teamed with another couple, Ray and Carolin Wells of Anchorage, to start a car wash in Anchorage, but it was never built. Carolin Wells described the Palins as silent partners she believes initially paid half the money to buy the land. Around the time Sarah Palin began considering a run for governor, the Palins reduced their stake to 40 percent.

Barely a year into the land ownership, the man lined up to operate the car wash backed out, and since neither couple wanted to run it, they decided to sell the land and move on, Carolin Wells said. She couldn't recall the purchase or sales prices of the land, but believes she and her husband made a modest profit and the Palins broke even.

The couples let their state paperwork lapse on the venture, Anchorage Car Wash LLC, resulting in a letter threatening to dissolve the corporation. The letterhead carried Gov. Palin's name on it.
The deal was among several involving undeveloped land the Palins have engaged in over the years.

The Palins purchased a parcel on Beaverhouse Lake in Big Lake in 2003 and sold it in 2004 for an undisclosed amount. The land has been assessed at $14,000 the past three years.

The Palins sold nearly five acres of undeveloped waterfront property on the northeast shore of Wasilla Lake in 2005 to a local developer. The sales price wasn't disclosed. The land now is subdivided into five parcels, with two waterfront lots, two others behind those, and a commercial lot. Duane Mathes, a local real estate agent showing the property for the owner who bought it from the Palins, said the leveled lots are listed for $149,500 each.

Salmon, who was mayor of the Matanuska-Susitna Borough that includes Wasilla while Palin was Wasilla mayor, recalled that as mayor, Sarah Palin shared many of his pro-development views, and said the Palins' land acquisitions weren't unusual.

"A lot of Alaskans own a lot of land," Salmon said, "and if you're bright, you buy land in the path of progress."

Sharon Theimer reported from Washington. Associated Press writer Rita Beamish in San Mateo, Calif., contributed to this report.

URL: http://www.newsweek.com/id/161868
© 2008

Outsourcing Shops Feel the Street's Pain


India October 2, 2008, 5:00PM
Outsourcing Shops Feel the Street's Pain
Info tech spending in India by U.S. financial-services firms could shrink 15% to 20% over the next year

DELHI As the credit crunch on Wall Street sent dominoes toppling around the globe, Tata Consultancy Services, India's largest software-services company, started tightening its belt. Travel was restricted, electricity consumption was to be reduced, and the company considered removing Microsoft (MSFT) Office from its PCs and replacing it with free open-source alternatives, employees say.

India's seemingly unstoppable outsourcing industry is grappling with the woes of the financial firms that make up as much as half of revenues for some players. "How this plays out, who knows?" says Pramod Bhasin, CEO of Genpact, the world's largest business process outsourcing company. Although he's optimistic, he says: "The ability to predict has gone away."

HOW TEMPORARY?
Outsourcing companies have already pulled back on new office space and leases, according to Knight Frank India, a property consultant. "Their level of concern has gone up dramatically in the past few weeks with their top-tier customers vanishing right before their eyes," says John McCarthy, a Forrester Research (FORR) analyst who traveled to India twice in September to meet with jittery Indian players. "Anyone who says they aren't worried is probably lying."

In the past two months some of the biggest names in U.S. finance have gone under. Vanishing with them is the kind of work Indian software professionals have long excelled at—projects requiring mountains of coding and individual attention. In the first half of 2007, financial companies around the world handed out at least 48 major outsourcing contracts with a total value well in excess of $5.5 billion, reports researcher ValueNotes. The first half of this year saw just eight such contracts with a total reported value of $767 million. "A lot of companies are putting on a brave face and saying this is just a temporary phase," says ValueNotes CEO Arun Jethmalani.
"But how temporary is temporary?"
The estimated hit to India's outsourcers? As much as 8% of total revenue could vanish, Forrester predicts, as information technology spending in financial services shrinks by 15% to 20% over the next year. India's top five info tech and outsourcing companies saw slower growth in the first quarter, and their stocks have taken a beating. TCS's annual profit growth slowed to 7%, down from 36% in 2007. The company declined to comment for this story. Infosys Technologies has warned that it probably won't see a rise in profit this year but had no further comment. Satyam Computer (SAY), the No. 4 software service provider, says it has contracts with Lehman Brothers, AIG (AIG), and Merrill Lynch (MER). Those are "minuscule parts" of Satyam's $2.7 billion in annual revenues, says Chief Financial Officer V. Srinivas. "But that doesn't mean there won't be an impact in the future," Srinivas says. "We would be kidding ourselves if we thought that."

Optimists predict the downturn will be short. They say revenues will bounce back when American business decides to be more efficient, resulting in more outsourced work. One rosy estimate, by consultancy Everest Group, projects that cost-cutting spurred by the crisis will result in a 40% to 50% increase in financial-service outsourcing over the next five years.

The Indians, though, will continue to face increased competition for those jobs. Global players such as IBM (IBM), Accenture (ACN), and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) have grown deep roots on the subcontinent. "The crisis will make [the Indians] face the reality of doing global business," says Siddharth A. Pai, managing director of TPI, a consultant that helps companies manage outsourcing contracts. "They haven't seen the trough yet."

With Steve Hamm in New YorkSrivastava reports for BusinessWeek from New Delhi. Lakshman covers India business for BusinessWeek.
(http://www.businessweek.com/print/magazine/content/08_41/b4103080230830.htm)
Copyright 2000-2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All rights reserved.

2.10.08

Basic grocery items rise 10.5% from last year

By Matt Andrejczak, MarketWatch
Last update: 4:51 p.m. EDT Oct. 2, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Families have been feeling increasing financial pain at grocery-store cash registers, exacerbating their difficulties in the souring U.S. economy.

Here's how much it hurts: A basket of 16 basic food items cost $48.68 over the past three months, up 10.5% from a year ago, the American Farm Bureau Federation said Thursday.

The latest survey from the nation's largest farm organization underscores the pressures reverberating throughout the food chain, from the American farm to the executive suites of the largest U.S. packaged-food manufacturers.

Besides the elevated costs for basic food ingredients, rising energy prices have boosted processing, hauling, and refrigerating expenses for food makers including Kraft Foods Inc. Potatoes, cheddar cheese and apples posted the largest price gains from the second quarter of this year. A five-pound bag of potatoes cost $3.38, up 83 cents. Cheddar was $4.91 a pound, up 31 cents. Apples fetched $1.80 a pound, up 26 cents.

Among other items that rose are the following: pork chops, up 22 cents to $3.62 a pound; ground chuck, rising 10 cents to $2.95 a pound; and whole milk, costing 4 cents more at $3.92 a gallon.
On the downside, large eggs fell for the second consecutive quarter to $1.71 a dozen, down 11 cents, while a 20-ounce loaf of white bread also dropped 11 cents to $1.79. Bacon fell 6 cents a pound to $1.43.

The American Farm Bureau conducts its informal survey on a quarterly basis. The latest reading of how stretched the American grocery budget has become was done by 72 volunteer shoppers in 32 states during the month of August. Americans spend about 10% of their disposable income on food each year -- the lowest of any country worldwide, according to the U.S. government.

Matt Andrejczak is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.

(http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/filling-grocer-cart-costing-105/story.aspx?guid=%7b41F26EF6-FF28-4EA7-9BD5-F8AFA64A01BA%7d&print=true&dist=printMidSection

Fresh Data Show Economy Is Worsening


OCTOBER 3, 2008

New data show the economy's troubles deepening, with jobless claims reaching their highest level since the 2001 recession and factory orders tumbling sharply as the manufacturing sector struggles.

The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 497,000 in the week ended Sept. 27, the Labor Department said. That was the highest since Sept. 29, 2001, and reflected the effect of hurricanes Gustav and Ike as well as a weakening economy.


Even after accounting for the hurricanes, the report signaled labor-market weakness at a time when the crisis on Wall Street threatens to pull consumer spending and the overall economy into a deeper downturn.


The four-week average of new claims, which attempts to smooth out volatility, rose 11,500 to 474,000. That is the highest since October 2001 -- when the economy was in a recession -- and well above levels typically consistent with declines in monthly employment.


The tally of continuing claims, those by workers collecting benefits for more than one week in the week ended Sept. 20, jumped by 48,000 to 3,591,000. That is the highest since September 2003, suggesting it is getting harder for the unemployed to find new work.


The 4% decrease in orders for manufactured goods in August followed a downwardly revised 0.7% increase in July, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Initially, the government said orders rose 1.3% in July.


"The factory sector appears to be entering another down leg, deepening the industry's recession," said Steven Wood, chief economist at Insight Economics.


Write to Brian Blackstone at brian.blackstone@dowjones.com and Jeff Bater at jeff.bater@dowjones.com

29.9.08

Credit Spreads (Dow -778, nasdaq -199, SP500 -106)

3.5019
0.5935
1.9499
0.196
143.59
5.78
2.5688
0.2563
3.72
0.0162
3.8825
0.1206
1.626
-0.447
2.653
-0.392
3.566
-0.284
This page provides key rates and spreads for measuring liquidity in the credit and debt markets. Other essential rates can be found on the CNBC Bonds and Markets pages.

Notes:
The TED spread is the difference between interbank loans and U.S. government loans. It serves as an indicator of the bank sector's willingness to lend to one another. (The acronym comes from a combination of Treasury and Euro Dollar).

LIBOR is the London Interbank Offered Rate, the interest rate at which banks are willing to lend to one another.

Interest Rate Swaps are derivatives that trade interest rate payments for cash flows. The rate quoted here is the difference between the rate for a 2-year swap and the 2-year Treasury yield.

Earlier Monday, LIBOR, or London Interbank Offered Rate, for 3-month dollar loans had risen to 3.88 percent from 3.76 percent on Friday, suggesting that banks have grown increasingly unwilling to lend to each other. LIBOR for 3-month euro loans, meanwhile, soared to 5.22 percent, the highest rate ever.

These measures of the credit markets, where corporate borrowers go to find loans, indicated that the fear that has been gripping the world's financial system is far from alleviated.

"Right now, banks don't trust one another. This doesn't look to be the end of it," said Axel Merk, portfolio manager at Merk Funds. Even if the rescue package does get approved, it "is a tool that the Treasury can use, but it's not the solution to all the problems out there."

(AP)

General Election: McCain vs. Obama


Polling Data

PollDateSampleObama (D)McCain (R)Spread
RCP Average09/21 - 09/28--47.943.3Obama +4.6
Rasmussen Tracking09/26 - 09/283000 LV5045Obama +5
Gallup Tracking09/25 - 09/272719 RV5042Obama +8
Hotline/FD Tracking09/25 - 09/27914 RV4742Obama +5
GW/Battleground Tracking09/22 - 09/281000 LV4648McCain +2
CBS News/NY Times09/21 - 09/24LV4843Obama +5
FOX News09/22 - 09/23900 RV4539Obama +6
Marist09/22 - 09/23689 LV4944Obama +5

Intrade Market Prices for General Election: McCain vs. Obama

ObamaMcCain
Intrade Real Time Quotes

(SOURCE: http://www.realclearpolitics.com)

Libor rates show banks hoarding cash


By Michael Mackenzie in New York and David Oakley in London

Published: September 22 2008 21:13 | Last updated: September 22 2008 21:13

Equity markets initially greeted Friday’s announcement of the US plan to lift toxic assets out of the banking system with euphoria. But US and European equities fell on Monday, and there were clear signs of strain in other corners of the financial market.

In particular, borrowing rates in the interbank lending market remained high, suggesting it may take some time before banks stop hoarding their cash.

Paul Niven, head of asset allocation at F&C Asset Management, said: “Beyond the short term, where the rot has been stopped, it is our belief that we still have several years of work-out from the credit crunch, as banks rebuild balance sheets, de-leveraging continues, credit is restricted, and the payback for the boom years drags on.”

On Monday overnight lending rates known as London interbank offered rates (Libor) between banks in the dollar, sterling and euro zone markets eased a little further, but they remain above levels seen before last week’s market panic.

In contrast, three-month Euribor climbed 2 basis points to 5.025 per cent, the highest level since 2000 as banks refused to part with their cash. The spread between average overnight rates over the next three months and three-month Euro Libor remained at elevated levels of about 80 basis points. The equivalent relationships in the sterling and dollar markets were also extremely high.

Three-month dollar Libor eased to 3.198 per cent from 3.21 per cent, still well above its 2.82 per cent fix earlier this month.

Ongoing liquidity efforts by central banks and the Treasury bail-out for the banking system should slowly improve the relationship between Treasury yields and Libor, analysts believe.

George Goncalves, strategist at Morgan Stanley, said: “We are seeing a transfer of credit risk from the banking system to the Federal Government and, as a result, the difference between Treasury yields and Libor should slowly meet in the middle”.

The TED spread, which compares three-month Treasury yields and three month dollar Libor, was on Monday trading at 2.28 per cent, down from last week’s record above 3 per cent.

Mr Goncalves said a TED spread trading below 0.90 per cent would reflect normality between Treasury and money market collateral.

As the Treasury keeps selling new bills in order to fund the Fed’s liquidity measures for banks, traders expect yields on bills will steadily rise, after trading near zero per cent last week. In turn the support for bank balance sheets should slowly ease elevated levels in term Libor.

Much, however, rests on money market funds which have sharply pulled back from lending money to banks and companies. This follows last week’s failure of a money market fund for the first time since 1994. Most banks don’t borrow from each other in term Libor as it is usually cheaper to borrow from money market funds.

As of last Thursday, about $320bn of assets had poured out of prime institutional money funds as shareholders moved to preserve their liquidity, said JP Morgan. The bank said: “We would also expect to see at least some of the money that left the prime fund complex this past week, return as the market stabilises.”

The Fed has announced a new liquidity programme for banks to fund purchases of asset-backed commercial paper from prime money funds while the Treasury said it would guarantee the industry. However the $50bn Treasury backing for money funds is a fraction of the $3,400bn held by the sector. Many analysts worry that more redemptions and fund closures beckon and this will keep Libor elevated, particularly until the end of the year, when funding pressure is most acute.

Hedge Funds Prepare to Reveal Short Positions


By Reuters | 28 Sep 2008 | 05:50 PM ET

Hedge-fund managers are reluctantly preparing to disclose their short positions to U.S. regulators Monday, a move set to give a rare public glimpse into their secretive trading strategies two weeks later.

For shareholders who have blamed short sellers for driving down company stocks, it will be a chance to see who is targeting their firm.

It is also an experiment by U.S. securities regulators, putting short sellers briefly on a similar footing to large investors who accumulate stocks and are required to regularly disclose their positions publicly.

Under a temporary Securities and Exchange Commission order, big money managers will have to reveal the number and value of securities sold short each day last week.

The disclosures are part of a series of measures the SEC has undertaken to crack down on market manipulation with an eye to calming markets rocked by a series of bank failures and fears the credit crisis will worsen.

But hedge funds and short sellers have cried foul and one has likened the disclosures to forcing Coca-Cola Co to reveal its secret formula to its competitors.

Short sellers fear that once their positions are revealed to the public, other investors will copy their positions or reverse engineer their proprietary trading strategies.

"Let's suppose a quant fund, another class of hedge funds has a large short position based on a computer model or algorithm, investors or traders could try to artificially squeeze the quant fund by buying what they are short," said Doug Kass, a short-seller who is founder and president of hedge fund Seabreeze Partners Management.

Short sellers, who sell borrowed stock in hopes its price will fall, have been accused of driving down stocks in major financial firms like HBOS, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns.

Lehman filed for bankruptcy protection earlier in September. Bear Stearns was sold to JPMorgan Chase [JPM 45.99 -2.25 (-4.66%) ] in an emergency sale brokered in March by U.S. officials.

The SEC and other regulators in the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada and Australia has imposed temporary bans on the shorting of financial stocks.

The U.K.'s Financial Services Authority has also imposed a similar disclosure rule and is requiring investors with an existing short position above 0.25 percent of a financial company's share capital to declare the size of their holding every day.

The SEC will keeps its information private for two weeks.

After that, the information will be disclose to the public on via online Edgar filing system.
The Washington D.C.-based hedge fund lobby group, the Managed Funds Association, has urged the SEC to amend the order and keep the information private.

It is unclear whether the SEC will amend the order.

However, the agency is expected to consider permanent rules requiring short interest disclosure.
The SEC is requiring money managers to file a comprehensive form that includes their short position at the beginning of the day, the number of securities sold short, the value of the securities sold short and the short position at the end of the day.

The form also requires money managers to disclose their largest intraday short position and the time of day of the largest intraday short position.

"The degree of difficulty in completing the new form is related to the degree of short trading activity of each manager and the level of sophistication the manager possesses in capturing the required information," said David Tittsworth, executive director of the Investment Adviser Association, which represents about 500 firms that collectively manage about $9 trillion in assets.

Travis Larson, vice president with Wall Street lobby group the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, said most firms will be ready by Monday. "Everyone recognizes it will be a lot of work between now and then," he said late on Friday.

Supreme Court Vacancies Likely in Next Four Years

Supreme Court Vacancies Likely in Next Four Years

One issue that has been totally absent from the campaign is the Supreme Court. Five of the justices are 70 or more. Justice Stevens is 88 and unlikely to want to serve 4 more years. Justice Ginsberg had cancer and was operated on for it. Justice Souter is known to want to retire and return to New Hampshire. These are three of the most liberal justices on the court. If all three retire and are replaced by Obama, the court will retain its even split between liberals and conservatives for many years to come. If all three are replaced by McCain, the conservatives will have a clear majority and surely reverse Roe v. Wade and many other decisions that conservatives think are wrong. It is amazing that the court has gotten so little attention.


Stevens
88

Ginsburg
75

Souter
69

JusticeAppointed bySworn inAge
John Paul StevensFord197588
Ruth Bader GinsburgClinton199375
Antonin ScaliaReagan198672
Anthony KennedyReagan198872
Stephen BreyerClinton199470
David SouterBush 41199069
Clarence ThomasBush 41199160
Samuel AlitoBush 43200658
John RobertsBush 43200553

(SOURCE: http://www.electoral-vote.com)

US-India nuclear deal clears first hurdle

US-India nuclear deal clears first hurdle

By Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington

Published: September 28 2008 19:04 | Last updated: September 28 2008 19:04

The US House of Representatives has approved a landmark nuclear deal with India, removing one of two final obstacles to a foreign policy victory for the Bush administration.

While the House approved the deal 298-117 on Saturday, it still faces a hurdle in the Senate. Several senators oppose the deal and could attempt to block a vote in the few days left before Congress recesses ahead of the November elections.

(http://ft.com)

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