19.8.11

Treasures in the Trash: 8 Stocks That Were Oversold

Published: Friday, 19 Aug 2011 | 2:32 PM ET

By: Lee Brodie

Investors get your shopping lists ready; the The Fast Money pros think it's about time to hit the buy button.

And yes, they're aware of the market swings - they know August has been the most violent month for stocks since the collapse of Lehman in 2008.

But the gang says some stocks have just gotten too cheap to pass up, even amid all the market the madness.What are they buying, right now? How are the pros positioning? Following you'll find the Fast Money treasures in the trash. That is, 8 stocks that appear oversold.

Instant Insights with the Fast Money traders

Pete Najarian sees opportunity in Starbucks [SBUX 35.10 0.349 (+1%)] and pulled the trigger at $34. Fast Money’s Pit Boss likes the same store sales growth as well as margins. And even with rivals lowering coffee prices, he thinks Starbucks remains attractive.

Najarian also likes the SLV [SLV 41.68 2.02 (+5.09%)]. He thinks the ETF that tracks silver found a base right around $37, which is a key technical level. “Ever since then it’s bounced and moved to the upside,” he says. Also Najarian likes the options action. “The SLV August 43 calls – a lot of activity.” Najarian thinks these influences all signal upside.

Trader Patty Edwards suggests a retailer. “I like Nordstrom [JWN 37.45 -0.85 (-2.22%)],” she tells us and she added to her position on the pullback. "It's down 15% just since the 15th of this month, that's too much." Edwards thinks the management team at the department store is reason enough for a long position. And if you’re worried about the high-end, she says don’t be. “If they thought the high-end was cracking they would have warned.”

Edwards also suggests a long position at Walter Energy [WLT 74.15 -1.05 (-1.4%)]. “It’s 45% off the highs – the world has not slowed down that much,” she says.

Trader Steve Cortes reaveals that he added to his position in Walmart [WMT 52.30 0.51 (+0.98%) ] during the sell-off. Fast Money’s El Capitan likes the recent price action, “it’s holding above $50,” he says. “And it’s a North America story – the company is relatively insulated from troubles in Europe,” he says. Cortes also thinks declining prices at the pump will give Walmart shoppers a little more cash to spend for back-to-school.

And Cortes also has another idea, “if you’re looking for a tech trade look at Intel [INTC 19.19 -0.58 (-2.93%)]. Unlike most tech names it provides a fantastic dividend yield.”

The concept of yield is something trader Dan Dicker also likes. “They’re boring but I’m moving into MLPs,” he says. The names he suggests include Enterprise [EPD 39.45 -1.28 (-3.14%)], and Kinder Morgan [KMP 66.25 -1.01 (-1.5%)].

SOURCE: http://www.cnbc.com/id/44204231

Yoshikami: Computers Are Killing Us Investors

Published: Friday, 19 Aug 2011 | 10:29 AM ET

Michael Yoshikami
CEO, Founder & Chairman YCMNET’s Investment Committee

It's a roller coaster ride. Markets up and down with no rationale that easily explains the fluctuation. Yes, the US is in a stumbling recovery and Europe is a major problem. But the sheer magnitude of the volatility has left many investors shaking their head and seeking to abandon investing in any market related assets.

So what's causing this volatility? It's very simple really; technology. Information and the ability to react at the blink of an eye has changed the game. And for individual shorter term investors, it's now an unfair playing field.

In the good old days when paper reports and discussions drove market performance, there was time to digest and ponder investment decisions. That is no longer the case; technology has changed the game. Just look at trading in companies like HP [HPQ 23.60 -5.91 (-20.03%)] and Citigroup [C 26.77 -1.21 (-4.32%)]. These companies have fluctuated up and down based on fundamentals but volumes suggest that computerized trading is driving the beta on these stocks.

The internet has created a more level playing field but has resulted in the ability to react instantaneously.

And not only individual investors are prone to rapid movements based on released data; institutional investors are as well.

With the advent of supercomputers, there are banks of hard drives whirring away in the background attempting to capture a price anomaly on a second by second basis. Literally thousands of trades can occur in a one second time frame and, when you have many institutions and computerized investors employing a similar technique, the whipsaw in the market can be staggering.

One might think that trading fluctuation is merely a reflection of fundamentals; that is simply not true. Yes, fundamental data points and news stories do significantly drive markets, but the intensity of the movement is multiplied exponentially by fast acting computer programming. So what might have been a 75 point drop in an equity index can easily turn into a 300 point drop if thousands of computers simultaneously hit the panic button based on a short-term technical indicator. That's what we see happening today.

Many investors sold in 2008 when the economy was in dire straits and computer trading exacerbated the situation. "I simply cannot take the volatility" many exclaimed and that is completely understandable. Of course, what they did not recognize was that the volatility was directly related to computerized trading. Just as quickly, when sentiment shifted, the other direction computer programming took over and we saw a historic rally upward which many investors missed. So, in an era when volatility is at high level, one has to make a determination about time horizon and how much short-term anguish can be endured when the computers kick into overdrive9

Banks of computers or driving investors out of the market and it's simply not right. I have been a proponent of the perspective that the playing field must be leveled and individual investors without millions of dollars to pour into computerized trading, should be given the same opportunity for success as big institutions. But while I believe this is important, I doubt significant action will be taken.

I'll let you draw your own conclusions on why that might be the case.

In the meantime, time horizon assessment is what's key. If one is a short-term investor trying to compete with technology far superior to anything mere mortals can afford, one should really rethink the investment strategy employed. The reality is it's a new world for investing and understanding the landscape is critical because the environment has changed permanently.

PIMCO: Treasury market reflects likelihood of recession

On Friday August 19, 2011, 1:57 pm

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bill Gross, manager of the world's largest bond fund, said on Friday the rally in Treasury yields to 60-year lows reflect a high probability of recession in the United States.

Gross, the co-chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co., which oversees $1.2 trillion, also told Reuters Insider television it is apparent that policy options are limited.

"It is increasingly apparent to us that policy options are limited and that economic growth is slowing down," said Gross said. "There's no doubt that growth from the standpoint of employment or unemployment and growth from the standpoint of corporate profits is definitely a risk -- whether or not we see a positive 1 percent real GDP number I think is besides the point."

Gross said low Treasury yields are flashing recessionary conditions.

"They certainly reflect, in terms of their yields, not only a potential for a recession but the almost high probability of recession and the result of lowering inflation."

For more from the Interview, please click on http://insider.thomsonreuters.com/

(Reporting by Daniel Burns, Burton Frierson and Jennifer Ablan; Editing by Neil Stempleman)

SOURCE: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/PIMCOs-Gross-Policy-options-rb-3846000443.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

17.8.11

Gold, Oil & the Dollar: Correlation Breakdown Is Concerning Says Yamada

Over her multi-decade legendary career, technical analyst Louise Yamada has seen all kinds of markets and probably analyzed more than a million charts. For Macke to refer to her as a "national treasure" speaks volumes about the quality and value of her work. It is also precisely why I take notice when I hear Louise call anything "amazing."

"What's amazing is everybody talks about the correlation between dollar direction and commodities, but the dollar has done absolutely nothing, flat for months, yet gold went up and oil went down, so there was no correlation," says Yamada. This means "the dollar is starting to lose that correlation perhaps because the perception of the dollar as the reserve currency is starting to drift away."

As much as that supports Yamada's belief that the dollar is in structural decline, the weak dollar/weak oil phenomenon could also be an indictment of a weak economy. For further proof of that she points to interest rates which "had seen higher lows in 2010 and 2011 and now those lows are being breached."

For Yamada this suggests we could be looking at a more serious global slowdown than we think. "What's more disconcerting to me now is...evidence at the long end, where interest rates were starting to pick up, is now dissolving and that I think is problematic in the sense that it's telling us that there is more fear and concern out there."

Geez Louise, you're bumming me out. But if she is right, expect crude oil to "stay in a low trading range of $67 to $90" and gold to make its way towards $2000 an ounce.

"Gold is in a structural bull market. It has maintained its 2009 uptrend on every pull back that has taken place and now you've had a rather accelerated advance to $1800," says Yamada.

Perhaps to assuage Macke -who confessed to buying back into gold after selling it in a move only he could describe as having all "the discipline and restraint of Charlie Sheen at the Adult Video Awards"- Yamada says since 2009 we have seen a series of 20% gains followed by consolidation and "would use any weakness to continue to add to positions." She "absolutely loves gold!"

Add it all up and this Friend of Breakout says it encourages her to stay on the sidelines. "It suggests there's confusion, there's not a definitive trend, and if there's not a trend you shouldn't be playing."

Are you in or out of commodities? Let us know in the comment section below or via email: breakoutcrew@yahoo.com

SOURCE: http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/gold-oil-dollar-correlation-breakdown-concerning-says-yamada-133101970.html%20?sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

16.8.11

Paddypower odds BO 4/6, RP 7/2, MR 5/1

facebook post ... Nurul Hamsath My initial call - Based on the latest Gallup Poll and State by State BO's popularity, with 448 days to go ...

My proprietary mathematical model says, BO 215 EV, Generic GOP 215 EV, Toss Up 108.

College: Expensive, but a smart choice

It's expensive and no job is guaranteed at the end, but research shows that college could easily be the best investment you ever make.

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