17.10.08

18 days to Blue Tsunami

Nation could face short Election Night
Mike Allen – Fri Oct 17, 12:34 pm ET
Featured Topics: 
McCain goes for broke in final debate with ObamaAFP – Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama (left) and his Republican rival John McCain greet each …

Network news executives said they are preparing for an unusual Election Night challenge: How to be honest with the audience, and still keep them tuned in, if the race between Sen. John McCain and Sen. Barack Obama  is effectively decided before most Americans have finished dinner.

After two elections in which the suspense went far into the evening (and, in the case of 2000, for 36 days afterward), the executives said they are contemplating how to manage their newscasts in the event of an Obama blowout — in which the Democrat’s victory would be obvious while polls are still open in most of the country.

“Our policy is that we won’t call individual states until all of the voting in those states is finished,” said Jeffrey Schneider, ABC News senior vice president. “If enough of those states add up to 270 electoral votes, then the outcome is obvious.”

The quandary is highlighted by Virginia, a state that has not voted Democratic for president since 1964 but where Obama is now leading in polls. There is no realistic McCain electoral college strategy that does not depend on winning the Old Dominion.

If it is clear on Nov. 4 that Obama has won in Virginia by the time polls there close at 7 p.m. — it will still be daylight west of the Mississippi — the obvious conclusion will be that Obama is headed to the White House.

But executives are already mulling how clearly they would want their anchors and analysts to state the obvious, since networks have been criticized for depressing turnout by calling elections while polls are still open for several more hours. But they must also decide how they are going to fill air time, since networks are planning to be on the air until 2 a.m. on the East Coast.

Paul Friedman, CBS News senior vice president, said he has started to think “about what we could do to augment our Senate and House coverage on election night if the presidential story is over."

“As to the presidential race, it's pretty simple: We will try to call a winner in each state as soon as possible after the polls close in each state,” Friedman e-mailed. “If that adds up to 270 for someone before the polls close in the West, there's not a lot we can do. If there are not enough electoral votes for one man to win it before the Western states close, but we're pretty sure how they're going to fall, we will be ready with language which states the obvious without being too obvious. We can't be in the business of pretending to be stupid.”

Network political experts do not expect a candidate to reach the winning threshold of 270 electoral votesbefore 11 p.m. Eastern. “Nearly a mathematical impossibility,” one network official e-mailed.

So even if the trend looks insurmountable, the technical suspense will remain, even in the outcome has been clear for hours.

Friedman said that in case of a landslide, “We could say something like, ‘Given the number of electoral votes Obama already has, and given what we know about the voting so far in various states where the polls have not closed, it is going to be very hard for John McCain to win.’ I would sincerely hope that kind of language would not discourage people out West from voting.”

Sam Feist, CNN's political director, cautioned that it could be harder than ever to project states early because all of the new, young and African-American voters could scramble turnout models. "Projecting races on Election Night is very dependent on comparisons to what the vote looked like in previous years," he said.

A night of early surprises would be a gift for John King's "Magic Wall" of computerized maps. Feist said: "If we know early in the evening that Barack Obama wins a critical state such as Virginia or Florida, we'll have a conversation about what John McCain would have to pull out of his hat now," such as Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, Colorado or Nevada.

McCain strategists, while not conceding defeat, argue that they are running in what is perhaps the most hostile climate a major-party nominee has ever faced, considering the economic implosion, the unpopularity ofPresident Bush and news coverage that they believe has turned against them.

McCain is playing defense in a host of states that George W. Bush won twice, most notably Ohio and Florida but also such normally safe states as North Carolina and Indiana (which, incidentally, has a 6 p.m. Eastern poll closing).

Bush strategist Karl Rove contended in The Wall Street Journal on Thursday that “Obama Hasn't Closed the Sale,” but even Rove called a McCain recovery “improbable.”

“This task, while not impossible, will be difficult,” Rove wrote. “If Mr. McCain succeeds, he will have engineered the most impressive and improbable political comeback since Harry Truman in 1948. But having to reach back more than a half-century for inspiration is not the place campaign managers want to be now.”

After McCain failed to shake up the race in Wednesday’s debate, pundits have been increasingly bold in suggesting that the race could be over.

As the leading edge of what is likely to be a race by journalists to forecast the outcome of what has been the most exciting presidential race in American history, ABC News veteran Sam Donaldson said of McCain on “Good Morning America” on Thursday: “Something could happen. But unless it does, he’s going to lose.”

Over on MSNBC, host Joe Scarborough said on “Morning Joe”: “When it becomes obvious that one candidate’s going to lose, usually members of that party start jumping, like rats from a ship. You’re starting to hear from Republicans that are really afraid McCain’s going to lose, Democrats may [reach] 60 in the Senate, and this is going to be a historic rout.”

And Republican analyst Torie Clarke, who once worked as McCain’s Senate press secretary and who appeared with Donaldson, had this advice for her former boss: “He has to ask himself some very tough questions, because one way or the other, this is the final chapter in his political career. And how does he want to write that final chapter? … Does he want to do anything in an effort to win, or does he want to go out the way he likes to think of himself — as a public servant?”

(SOURCE: http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico)

Buffett says 'Buy American'

Buffett says 'Buy American'

Buffet says 'Buy American'AFP/DDP/File – Warren Buffett, the world's richest man according to Forbes magazine, said Friday in a newspaper …

NEW YORK (AFP) – Warren Buffett, the world's richest man according to Forbes magazine, said Friday in a newspaper commentary that he is buying US stocks even though the American economy is in a "mess".

Buffett, 78, who has become known as the "Oracle of Omaha" because of his fortune building skills, said he has been buying into US companies even as "fear spreads".

"The financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher," the head of Berkshire Hathaway Inc conglomerate wrote in the New York Times.

"In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary," Buffett added.

"So ... I've been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I'm talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy)."

"If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities."

The reason, he said, is a key maxim in his outlook: "A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when othersare greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.

"Most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation's many sound companies make no sense," Buffett said.

"These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records five, 10 and 20 years from now."

Buffet stressed that he could not predict how the market would ride out its roller-coaster days in the short-term.

But he said "what is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over."

Buffett has supported Democrat Barack Obama in the race for the White House. But both Obama and his Republican rival John McCain say they agree he would make a good treasury secretary.

Buffett, who is noted for his personal frugality despite his huge fortune, has said in the past he believes the financial markets should be more tightly regulated.

According to Forbes magazine's annual wealth list published in March, Buffett saw his worth jump from 52 billion dollars last year to 62 billion, pushing Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates out of first place.

(SOURCE: http://news.yahoo.com)

16.10.08

Electoral College Graphs 2008


Graph of electoral votes over time

The graph above shows the current number of electoral votes for each candidate since Mar 22, The brown horizontal line shows the 270 electoral vote mark needed to be elected president. The gray vertical lines show the boundaries between the months.

Is it all over?

Obama Wins Final Debate by a Large Margin

John McCain had to give it everything he had last night and he did, but it probably wasn't enough. He attacked Barack Obama on his character, on his relationship with William Ayers, on everything. His best sound bite was: "Senator Obama. I am not President Bush. If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago." But Obama parried this by saying: "on the core economic issues that matter to the American people--on tax policy, on energy policy, and spending priorities--you have been a vigorous supporter of President Bush."

The day before the debate, Obama practically dared McCain to bring up the subject of William Ayers. McCain hesitated to do it, but moderator Bob Schieffer called his bluff saying to him: "Your running mate said he palled around with terrorists." McCain was now on the spot and angrily said: "I don't care about an old, washed up terrorist. But as Sen. Clinton said in her debates with you we need to know the full extent of that relationship. Obama calmly replied: "Bill Ayers is a professor of education in Chicago. Forty years ago, when I was 8 years old, he engaged in despicable acts with a radical domestic group. I have roundly condemned those acts. Ten years ago, he served and I served on a board that was funded by one of Ronald Reagan's former ambassadors and close friends, Mr. Annenberg." From now on, when the Republicans bring up Ayers, the Democrats are going to point out that one of Reagan's close friends liked him enough to put him on the board of one of his foundations.

While McCain scored more formal debating points than he did in his earlier debates, he lost the body language war. He was tense, angry, smirking, and sarcastic, anything but presidential. Prof. Obama, the law professor, acted like Prof. Obama, the law professor, focused, unruffled, and in control on the facts and in his demeanor. Watch him at Youtube.

Immediately after the debate, Opinion Research Corp., CNN's pollster this year, ran a poll on who won. Once again, Obama won, 58% to 31%, an almost 2 to 1 margin. To shake up the race, McCain had to win decisively. All Obama needed was a draw. Instead he got a resounding victory. On the economy, which is topic A (as well as topic B and topic C) at the moment, 59% said Obama would manage it better and 24% said McCain would. Respondents also preferred Obama's stand on taxes by 56% to 41% and also his stand on health care by 62% to 31%. In addition, the people polled also said Obama expressed his views better, was the stronger leader, was more likeable, and was less of a typical politician. And on the heart of the McCain campaign--that he never met William Ayers and Obama did--51% said Ayers didn't matter to them at all.

Maybe Lee Atwater is really dead, finally.

As it did before, CBS commissioned Knowledge Networks to run a poll among uncommitted voters. The 638 respondents said Obama won, 53% to 22%. Before the debate 54% thought Obama shared their values (a key Republican selling point). Afterwards it was 64%. For McCain the figures were 52% and 55%, respectively. Before the debate, 54% thought Obama would make the right decisions about the economy; after it was 65%. For McCain the numbers were 38% and 48%, respectively. Before the debate, 66% thought Obama understood their needs; afterwards it was 76%. For McCain it was 36% to 46%.

In short, in the World Series of Debate, the Democrats won 4-0. There will be no game 5. Obama was already ahead when he started and he increased his lead in every area that matters to the voters. Many observers have said all along this is Obama's race to win or lose and there is nothing John McCain can do about it. The voters are sick and tired of George Bush and his enablers and angry about the direction the country is going. They desperately want change. The only issue is whether Obama is up to the job. The Republicans have thrown everything including the kitchen sink at him, but he has come off as cool (in at least two ways), knowledgeable, and completely unflappable. There will be more complete polls in the next few days, but Obama probably closed the deal last night.

(SOURCE: http://www.electoral-vote.com/ )


ABC Fact Check after 3rd Presidential Debate

FACT CHECK: Truth Behind Final Presidential Debate Claims

ABC News Independently Checks Claims Made by Barack Obama and John McCain During Last Debate

Oct. 15, 2008 —

ABC News independently checked some of the claims made by John McCain and Barack Obama during the third and final presidential debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y.

The candidates made many charges against each other, but are they true?

With reporting by the ABC News Fact Check team John Berman, Lisa Chinn, Dennis Dunlavey, Brian Hartman, Tom Giusto, Kimberley Randolph, Z. Byron Wolf, Justin Rood, Teddy Davis, Karen Travers, Kirit Radia, Luis Martinez, Ariane deVogue, Arlette Saenz, Reynolds Holding, Jerika Richardson, Tim Jaconette and Steven Portnoy.

Mortgage Plan

Early in the debate, John McCain said that Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., proposed the same kind of mortgage buy-up plan that he did. "During the depression era, we had a thing called the Homeownership Loan Corporation, and they went out and bought up these mortgages and people were able to stay in their homes and, eventually, the values of those homes went up and they actually made money. And, by the way, this was a proposal made by Sen. Clinton not too long ago," McCain said.

FALSE. While Clinton has proposed directly helping homeowners by having the government buy and resell mortgages that are in danger of foreclosure, her proposal would force financial institutions to take a loss. The McCain proposal, by contrast, is more generous to financial institutions and more costly for taxpayers. The Arizona senator would have the government pay face value for home mortgages, ensuring that financial institutions avoid a loss. More background here.

ACORN

Tonight, Obama defended himself against McCain's charges that his campaign has been linked to the voter registration group ACORN, which is under investigation for voter fraud in several states.

Obama said, "The only involvement I've had with ACORN was I represented them alongside the U.S. Justice Department in making Illinois implement a motor voter law."

FALSE: That's a bit of an understatement. This election, Obama's campaign has contracted with an organization aligned with ACORN for "get-out-the-vote" efforts, paying them $800,000.

Ayers

John McCain charged that Obama "launched his political campaign in Bill Ayers' living room." Obama flatly rejected this association between his campaign and the University of Illinois professor who was among the founders of the radical anti-war group the Weather Underground. Obama said, "that's absolutely not true."

FALSE: Recollections differ about the beginnings of Obama's political career and 1996 run for State Senate in Illinois. A Chicago rabbi says he hosted the first coffee for Obama, not Ayers. And the Obama campaign says the "official kickoff" of that campaign happened at a Ramada Inn, not Ayers' living room.

Federal Bailout

Tonight both candidates got the amount of the federal Wall Street bailout wrong. But what's $50 billion between friends?

McCain said, "We have allocated $750 billion. Let's take 300 of that billion and go in and buy those home loan mortgages."

And Obama said, "The $750 billion rescue package, if it's structured properly, and as president I will make sure it is structured properly, means that, ultimately, taxpayers get their money back."

Well, they were both WRONG. The bill signed by the president only allocates $700 billion. Here is the language from the bill: "...The President transmits to the Congress a written report detailing the plan of the Secretary to exercise the authority under this paragraph, unless there is enacted, within 15 calendar days of such transmission, a joint resolution described in subsection (c), effective upon the expiration of such 15-day period, such authority shall be limited to $700,000,000,000 outstanding at any one time."

Negative Ads

Obama claimed that 100 percent of John McCain's campaign ads have been negative.

Obama: "A hundred percent, John, of your ads, a hundred percent of them, have been negative."

McCain: "It's not true."

Obama: "It absolutely is true."

FALSE: Or rather, not exactly. While an independent study by Campaign Media Analysis Group and the Wisconsin Advertising Project found that, during the week of Sept. 28-Oct. 4, nearly 100 percent of McCain's ads were negative, the Wisconsin Advertising project also found that only 74 percent of the ads McCain has run since June have been negative.

Joe the Plumber's Health Insurance

McCain said that small businessman "Joe the Plumber" would end up paying a fine if he refused to provide his workers with health insurance under Barack Obama's health care plan.

FALSE: Under the Obama proposed health plan, small businesses are exempt from a requirement imposed on large companies that they contribute to a national health fund if they fail to make "a meaningful contribution" to their employees' health care costs.

15.10.08

Sen McCains "My friends, we've got them just where we want them"

"Senator Obama is measuring the drapes, and planning with Speaker Pelosi and Senator Reid to raise taxes, increase spending, take away your right to vote by secret ballot in labor elections, and concede defeat in Iraq. But they forgot to let you decide." - Sen. McCain

"My friends, we’ve got them just where we want them"


ON GOING FACTS:

WASHINGTON - The Republican National Committee is halting presidential ads in Wisconsin and Maine, turning much of its attention to usually Republican states where GOP nominee John McCain shows signs of faltering. (Oct 15 AP)

VARIOUS SOURCES

Worst Trading Period in Living Memory Coming: Manager

Worst Trading Period in Living Memory Coming: Manager
By CNBC.com | 15 Oct 2008 | 09:31 AM ET
Text Size

The winter holidays are unlikely to bring relief to jittery investors as stock markets may fall between 10 and 20 percent within the next four months, Jason Forde, fund manager at Kepler Capital Markets said Wednesday.

"I am very frightened as we go into the festive season, Thanksgiving and Christmas, we will see the worst trading period in living memory," Forde told CNBC.

The sharp downturn would result from the governments, in the U.S. and Europe, taking stakes in banks and forcing them to lend in return for the capital injections the states have promised, instead of scaling back as they do when recessions loom, he said.

"They (governments) are forcing banks to do things in lieu of all the capital injections that they are promising; to do things that from a commercial standpoint do not make sense. For example, going into a recession, banks should be tightening their credit facilities. They should be pulling back, not expanding," Forde said.

As a result, the lending that the banks have been encouraged to do will go sour in the next six to nine months, he said.

Forde also believes that if OPEC does not take the "window of opportunity" at its next meeting in November and agree and instigate supply cuts, oil will head back to $40 a barrel by the third quarter of next year as "global recession goes into its fourth quarter of negative movement."

© 2008 CNBC.com

Predicting 2008 US Presidency based on 2004 Elections

Here are the final national polls for 2004 Election Cycle. Seems to me that CBS/NYT got it right.

Election 2004 final results: Kerry 48.0%, Bush 51.0%, Nader 0.3%, Badnarik 0.3%, Others 0.4%.

Moving on to Oct 15th, 2008,

Current CBS Poll has Sen. Obama up by 14%

If the current trend holds, I predict, 2008 will be a landslide. Every 5% differential equates to 60 Electoral Votes. This is based on 1000 simulations. (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/)

(EV Sen Obama 361, Sen McCain 176)

As it stands now according to www.intrade.com, which called all 50 states right last time, it is Sen Obama 81.5%, Sen McCain 18.5% chance of winning, as of 12 Noon, Oct 15, 2008.

(EV Sen. Obama 364 Sen. McCain 171)

Pollster Sponsor Dates Kerry Bush Other Not sure N LV/RV
American Res. Grp
Oct 28 - Oct 30 49 48
3 1500 RV
American Res. Grp
Oct 28 - Oct 30 49 48
3 1500 LV
CBS News CBS Oct 28 - Oct 31 46 47 1 6 939 LV
CBS/NYT CBS/NYT Oct 28 - Oct 30 47 50 1 2 824 LV
Gallup USA Today Oct 29 - Oct 31 48 46 1 3 2014 RV
Gallup USA Today Oct 29 - Oct 31 47 49 1 3 1573 LV
Opinion Dynamics Fox News Oct 30 - Oct 31 47 45 1 5 1400 RV
Opinion Dynamics Fox News Oct 30 - Oct 31 48 46 1 5 1200 LV
Greenberg Dem. Corps Oct 26 - Oct 28 49 46 2 2 1502 LV
Harris
Oct 29 - Oct 31 45 49 3 3 1092 LV
Los Angeles Times LAT Oct 21 - Oct 24 47 47 1 5 1698 RV
Los Angeles Times LAT Oct 21 - Oct 24 48 48 1 3 881 LV
Marist Coll.
Oct 31 - Oct 31 48 48
4 1167 RV
Marist Coll.
Oct 31 - Oct 31 49 48
3 987 LV

NBC/WSJ Oct 29 - Oct 31 47 48 3 2 1014 LV
PSRAI Newsweek Oct 27 - Oct 29 44 48 1 7 1005 RV
PSRAI Newsweek Oct 27 - Oct 29 44 50 1 5 882 LV
PSRAI Pew Oct 27 - Oct 30 45 45 1 8 2408 RV
Zogby Reuters Oct 11 - Oct 13 45 46 2 7 1231 LV

Time Oct 19 - Oct 29 43 50 4 2 1059 RV

Time Oct 19 - Oct 29 46 51 2 1 803 LV
YouGov Economist Oct 29 - Nov 1 50 47 3
2164 LV

(SOURCE: http://www.electoral-vote.com)

14.10.08

Canada's Harper May Win Re-Election With Minority (Update1)

Canada's Harper May Win Re-Election With Minority (Update1)

By Theophilos Argitis

Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper was headed for re-election with a second straight minority government, according to projections by CTV based on preliminary results.

Harper's Conservative Party is leading in 105 districts, or 50 short of a parliamentary majority in Canada's 308-seat legislature, according to early results on Elections Canada's Web site. The Liberal Party leads in 68 districts, followed by the Bloc Quebecois with 31 and the New Democratic Party with 26. Harper had 127 seats when elections were called on Sept. 7.

The prime minister's first task if elected will be to shore up Canada's banks amid the global financial crisis and manage a slowdown in tax revenue that threatens to end a record streak of 11 consecutive budget surpluses.

To contact the reporter on this story: Theophilos Argitis in Ottawa at targitis@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: October 14, 2008 22:13 EDT

Could be a landslide (Blue Tsunami) (End of An Error)

Monday, June 16, 2008

Popular Vote v Electoral Vote

This might be my favorite graph that we've done so far: a comparison of Barack Obama's popular and electoral vote totals across the first 1,000 simulations that we ran last night:



Several interesting things to point out:

1. The relationship between the popular vote and the electoral vote is approximately linear, except at the endpoints. As a rule of thumb, a gain of one percentage point in a Obama's popular vote share results in a gain of 25 electoral votes. This is also, you will note, a pretty steep slope. If Obama wins the election by 4 percentage points, he projects to win by approximately 100 electoral votes (319-219). 

2. The regression line crosses the y-intercept at 269.3 electoral votes, which is almost exactly half of 538. That means that there does not appear to be any systematic advantage in the electoral vote math to one candidate or another, at least based on our present rendering of these numbers.

3. Where you do see a little bit of skew are those scenarios where one candidate wins by about 5-15 percentage points. In those cases, the winning candidate tends to win by more electoral votes than is predicted by the regression line. This is because an especially high number of states are within reach for one or another candidate. In contrast to 2004, when 16 states and the District of Columbia were decided by 20 or more points, very few are polling that way this year.

4. The range of possible outcomes given any specific value of the popular vote is about 80-100 electoral votes wide. For example, an Obama win by 5 percentage points could easily be associated with any number from about 290 electoral votes up to as many as 390, depending on how the individual states shake out. Likewise, for any given value of the electoral vote, the range of the popular vote margin is about 6 or 7 percentage points wide. What this means, among other things, is that it's virtually impossible for a candidate to win the electoral college while losing the popular vote by more than about 3 or 3.5 percentage points.

Poll: Obama Opens 14-Point Lead On McCain



Go to CBSNews.com Home


Poll: Obama Opens 14-Point Lead On McCain
Oct. 14, 2008

(CBS) Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama is entering the third and final presidential debate Wednesday with a wide lead over Republican rival John McCain nationally, a new CBS News/New York Times poll shows. 

The Obama-Biden ticket now leads the McCain-Palin ticket 53 percent to 39 percent among likely voters, a 14-point margin. One week ago, prior to the Town Hall debate that uncommitted voters saw as a win for Obama, that margin was just three points.
 
Among independents who are likely voters - a group that has swung back and forth between McCain and Obama over the course of the campaign - the Democratic ticket now leads by 18 points. McCain led among independents last week. 

McCain's campaign strategy may be hurting hurt him: Twenty-one percent of voters say their opinion of the Republican has changed for the worse in the last few weeks. The top two reasons cited for the change of heart are McCain's attacks on Obama and his choice of Sarah Palin as running mate. 


Obama is widely seen as running the more positive campaign: Sixty-one percent of those surveyed say McCain is spending more time attacking his opponent than explaining what he would do as president. Just 27 percent say the same of Obama. 

McCain's favorable rating has fallen four points from last week, to 36 percent, and is now lower than his 41 percent unfavorable rating. Obama, by contrast, is now viewed favorably by half of registered voters and unfavorably by just 32 percent. 

Obama holds a considerable edge over his rival on having the right "personality and temperament" to be president, with 69 percent saying Obama does and 53 percent saying McCain does. The Democratic nominee is also widely seen as more likely to make the right decision on the economy, far and away the top issue for voters, in a survey taken in the immediate aftermath of last week's historic Wall Street losses. 

Opinions of the candidates could still change, and potential trouble spots remain for Obama, among them the fact that small percentages of voters cite Obama's past associations with Bill Ayers (9 percent) and Reverend Jeremiah Wright (11 percent) as issues that bother them. 

But with more than four out of five of each candidate’s supporters now saying their minds are made up, the poll suggests that McCain faces serious challenges as he looks to close the gap on his Democratic rival in the final three weeks of the campaign. 

Views Of The Candidates 

Obama's lead over McCain when it comes to the economy has grown since last week, and a majority of registered voters now say they are not confident in McCain to make the right decisions on economic issues. Thirty-nine percent are not confident in Obama. 

There is, however, an opening for the candidates in this area: Fewer than one quarter are presently very confident in either Obama or McCain to make the right decisions on the economic crisis. 

On raising taxes - an area where a Republican nominee might be expected to have an edge - Obama also leads. Despite the McCain campaign's efforts to cast Obama as a tax-raiser, more registered voters say McCain is likely to raise their taxes (51 percent) than say Obama will raise their taxes (46 percent). 

Voters are almost three times more likely to be very confident in Obama when it comes to health care (28 percent) than McCain (10 percent). A majority of voters, 54 percent, are not confident in McCain to handle health care, while 33 percent are not confident in Obama. 

McCain continues to be hurt by his perceived ties to the unpopular Republican president, George W. Bush, whose approval rating is 24 percent. More than half of registered voters surveyed say they expect McCain to continue Mr. Bush's economic policies if he is elected. 

Obama holds a more than 20-point edge when it comes to understanding voters' needs and problems, with 64 percent saying Obama does and 43 percent saying McCain does. 

The Republican nominee does hold a clear advantage on being seen as prepared to be president, as he has throughout the campaign. That measure does not appear to be boosting his support, however, perhaps because while 64 percent say McCain is prepared for the job, more than half say Obama is as well. 

Just 7 percent of registered voters say their opinion of McCain has improved recently, while 21 percent say it has gotten worse. The numbers are nearly reversed for Obama: Seventeen percent say their opinion of Obama has improved in recent weeks, while 7 percent say it has declined. 

Obama now enjoys leads over McCain with both men (53 percent to 41 percent) and women (52 percent to 37 percent). Eighty-two percent of voters who backed Hillary Clinton in the primaries now say they will back Obama - up from 67 percent last week and the highest number to date. 

McCain still leads among Republicans, conservatives and white evangelicals, but the race is now roughly even among whites, a group McCain led 54 percent to 39 percent last week. 

With voter registration up in many key states this year, 63 percent of those casting a ballot for first time in 2008 are backing Obama. 

The Debates And The Candidates' Past Associations 

Seven in 10 registered voters said they watched last week’s presidential debate, and, looking back, 57 percent of debate watchers said Obama won the contest. Just 18 percent saw the debate as a McCain victory. 

Expectations are high for Obama in Wednesday's third and final debate, which 65 percent of registered voters say they are very likely to watch. Nearly half of all registered voters expect Obama will win the debate, while just 19 percent expect McCain to win. 

Recently, the McCain campaign has gone after Obama about his relationship with former Weather Underground member Bill Ayers, and McCain has signaled that he will mention Ayers in the debate. 

One in three voters say they have heard "a lot" about Ayers, and 31 percent say they have heard something about him, though far fewer - 9 percent - say the association bothers them. 

Four percent of voters say that it bothers them that Obama is a Muslim, which he is not. Fifty-six percent say nothing about Obama’s past bothers them. 

As for the Republican candidate, seven in ten voters say nothing about McCain’s past bothers them. Four percent mention the Keating Five scandal that McCain was involved in the late 1980s and early 1990s. 

A majority of registered voters believe the tone of the 2008 campaign has been about the same as in past years. Thirty percent say it has been more negative, while 15 percent say it has been more positive. 

Democrats, Republicans, And The 2008 House Vote 

Americans have a much higher opinion of the Democratic Party than the Republican Party. A majority - 52 percent - have a favorable opinion of the Democrats, while far less - 37 percent - have a favorable opinion of Republicans. 

The Democratic Party is seen as more likely than the Republican Party to make the right decision on health care (55 percent to 18 percent), the economy (47 percent to 29 percent), and the war in Iraq (44 percent to 37 percent). 

And when it comes to the House Of Representatives, 48 percent of likely voters say they will be choosing the Democratic candidate in November, compared to 34 percent who plan to vote for the Republican candidate. 


This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1070 adults nationwide, including 972 registered voters, interviewed by telephone October 10-13, 2008. Phone numbers were dialed from RDD samples of both standard land-lines and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample and the sample of registered voters could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher.


© MMVIII, CBS Interactive, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Palin on her political future: 'That's a good question'

Posted: 06:23 PM ET

From
Sarah Palin discussed her political future Tuesday.
Sarah Palin discussed her political future Tuesday.

SCRANTON, Pennsylvania (CNN) – Though her cell phone service repeatedly dropped during her call-in, Sarah Palin made her first appearance on the Rush Limbaugh show on Tuesday, just minutes before taking the stage at a rally in Scranton.

Watch: Palin calls in to Limbaugh's show

In an unusual moment, Limbaugh asked Palin if she had thought about her "political future beyond this campaign." The vice presidential nominee told the conservative talker and his millions of listeners: “That’s a good question.” But she then quickly re-assured the radio host that her focus was on winning the White House with John McCain on November 4.

“No, because I am thinking about November 4, and I am just so absolutely passionate about the job that we have in front of us from now to November 4,” she said.

For the first time, Palin directly addressed the controversy surrounding ACORN’s voter registration operation, and suggested that the media is trying to cover up the story, despite the fact that dozens of national news outlets are investigating the community organization and Obama’s ties to the group.

“Let’s talk quickly about ACORN and the unconscionable situation that we are facing right now with voter fraud, given the ties between Obama and ACORN and the money his campaign has sent them,” Palin told Limbaugh. “Obama has a responsibility to reign in ACORN and prove that he is willing to fight voter fraud. For shame if the mainstream media were to cover this one up.”

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