Zogby Poll - Take it with a pound of salt

I totally agree

On the eve of the 2004 election, Zogby predicted that John Kerry would beat President Bush, a move he now attributes to "hubris and naivete."

After Bush won, Zogby says, "I wasn't in a fetal position, but I vowed I wouldn't do that again. And I haven't."

As you probably know, I have a significant critique of Zogby's weighting mechanism, which assumes that the partisan identification breakdown will be roughly equal to 2004, when about the same number of Democrats and Republicans turned out for the election. Neverthless, McCain also improved slightly in the Research 2000, IBD/TIPP, and ABC/Post polls. On the other hand, Barack Obama gained a point in Hotline and the Gallup "Likely Voters II" model (though not Gallup's "traditional" likely voter model), and remains at his high-water mark in Rasmussen.

(SOURCE http://www.washingtonpost.com, http://www.fivethirtyeight.com)