Its all over ... Landslide in 13 days - New Deal II

(http://www.electoral-vote.com/)

All the Metrics Point to an Obama Win

Back in 2007, when practically every pundit saw Rudy Giuliani as the inevitable Republican nominee, political guru Charlie Cook said he (Cook) was more likely to win the Tour de France than the Republicans were to nominate a thrice-married, gay-friendly, Catholic New Yorker. Cook didn't win the Tour de France and Giuliani didn't win the nomination, so Cook gets a certain amount of credit. Now he says there are six factors pointing to an Obama win in two weeks:

1. No candidate this far back two weeks out has ever won.
2. Early voting is going strong and even if something big happens, those votes are already cast.
3. The Democrats have a 10% advantage in party registration; in 2004 it was even.
4. Obama is outspending McCain 4 to 1 in many states.
5. There is no evidence for the so-called Bradley effect in the past 15 years.
6. Obama is safe in all the Kerry states and ahead in half a dozen states Bush won.

Election Analysis by Pollster Steve Lombardo

Pollster Steve Lombardo also has a nice analysis of where the presidential election stands now. His major points: (1) Obama won the debates big time, (2) Obama is playing offense all over the map while McCain is playing defense, (3) Obama's massive fundraising is a huge advantage, and (4) more people identify as Democrats than as Republicans by an 8% margin. None of these factors look good for McCain.

McCain is Dragging Down Republican Candidates

Stu Rothenberg, another political analyst, wrote a column saying that not only does McCain appear to have no coattails, he appears to be badly hurting downticket Republicans and could end up causing a number of them to go down to defeat. While the effect is biggest in swing districts, it is also causing problems in relatively solid Republican districts.

Obama Had $134 Million at the Start of October

On the strength of his $150 million haul in September, despite heavy spending that month, Obama had $134 million in the bank at the start of October. McCain had $47 million. However, the DNC had only $27 million to the RNC's $77 million. Still, this gives Obama a huge edge. In addition, Obama is continuing to pull in $5 million a day during October, which will increase his financial edge even more during the final two weeks.

Flawed AP/Gfk Poll

AP/Gfk Poll: Presidential Race Very Close

A new AP-Gfk poll shows the presidential race much closer than other recent polls. Sen. Barack Obama just barely edges Sen. John McCain, 44% to 43%, among likely voters.

However, when you look at total respondents to the survey, Obama's lead grows to ten points, 47% to 37%.