Predicting 2008 US Presidency based on 2004 Elections

Here are the final national polls for 2004 Election Cycle. Seems to me that CBS/NYT got it right.

Election 2004 final results: Kerry 48.0%, Bush 51.0%, Nader 0.3%, Badnarik 0.3%, Others 0.4%.

Moving on to Oct 15th, 2008,

Current CBS Poll has Sen. Obama up by 14%

If the current trend holds, I predict, 2008 will be a landslide. Every 5% differential equates to 60 Electoral Votes. This is based on 1000 simulations. (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/)

(EV Sen Obama 361, Sen McCain 176)

As it stands now according to www.intrade.com, which called all 50 states right last time, it is Sen Obama 81.5%, Sen McCain 18.5% chance of winning, as of 12 Noon, Oct 15, 2008.

(EV Sen. Obama 364 Sen. McCain 171)

Pollster	Sponsor	Dates	Kerry	Bush	Other	Not sure	N	LV/RV
American Res. Grp		Oct 28 - Oct 30	49	48		3	1500	RV
American Res. Grp		Oct 28 - Oct 30	49	48		3	1500	LV
CBS News	CBS	Oct 28 - Oct 31	46	47	1	6	939	LV
CBS/NYT	CBS/NYT	Oct 28 - Oct 30	47	50	1	2	824	LV
Gallup	USA Today	Oct 29 - Oct 31	48	46	1	3	2014	RV
Gallup	USA Today	Oct 29 - Oct 31	47	49	1	3	1573	LV
Opinion Dynamics	Fox News	Oct 30 - Oct 31	47	45	1	5	1400	RV
Opinion Dynamics	Fox News	Oct 30 - Oct 31	48	46	1	5	1200	LV
Greenberg	Dem. Corps	Oct 26 - Oct 28	49	46	2	2	1502	LV
Harris		Oct 29 - Oct 31	45	49	3	3	1092	LV
Los Angeles Times	LAT	Oct 21 - Oct 24	47	47	1	5	1698	RV
Los Angeles Times	LAT	Oct 21 - Oct 24	48	48	1	3	881	LV
Marist Coll.		Oct 31 - Oct 31	48	48		4	1167	RV
Marist Coll.		Oct 31 - Oct 31	49	48		3	987	LV
	NBC/WSJ	Oct 29 - Oct 31	47	48	3	2	1014	LV
PSRAI	Newsweek	Oct 27 - Oct 29	44	48	1	7	1005	RV
PSRAI	Newsweek	Oct 27 - Oct 29	44	50	1	5	882	LV
PSRAI	Pew	Oct 27 - Oct 30	45	45	1	8	2408	RV
Zogby	Reuters	Oct 11 - Oct 13	45	46	2	7	1231	LV
	Time	Oct 19 - Oct 29	43	50	4	2	1059	RV
	Time	Oct 19 - Oct 29	46	51	2	1	803	LV
YouGov	Economist	Oct 29 - Nov 1	50	47	3		2164	LV

(SOURCE: http://www.electoral-vote.com)