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By CARL HULSE and DAVID M. HERSZENHORN
Published: January 31, 2008
WASHINGTON — A swelling exodus of senior Republican incumbents from the House, worsened by a persistent disadvantage in campaign money, threatens to cripple Republican efforts to topple the Democratic majority in November.
Representative Tom Davis, a moderate from Northern Virginia, on Wednesday became the fifth House Republican in the last week to announce that he would not seek re-election.
That puts the roster of retirees at 28, one of the highest numbers recorded for the party in the House.
With only five Democratic seats opening so far, party strategists and independent analysts say the disparity in open seats — typically the most competitive House fights, as voters oust relatively few incumbents — makes it highly unlikely that Republicans could seize the seats necessary to regain the House. The current House has 199 Republicans and 232 Democrats, with four vacancies to be filled by special elections.
“The open-seat situation is so lopsided as to deny Republicans any chance of taking back the House in 2008,” said David Wasserman, who analyzes House races for The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan publication.
Compounding their problems, Republicans face a worrisome financial gap in comparison to House Democrats. New fund-raising figures to be made public on Thursday will show that the national campaign committee of the House Democrats ended 2007 with $35 million in the bank and $1.3 million in debt. The Republicans’ committee had $5 million in the bank and $2 million in debt.
Senate Democrats, who intend to report $29.4 million in the bank with $1.5 million in debt, are expected to be comfortably ahead of Republicans in the holdings of their campaign committees as well. The National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee would not make its year-end fund-raising figures available on Wednesday.
Republicans concede that they are in a difficult spot.
“It is a challenge,” said Representative Tom Cole of Oklahoma, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. “What this does is make it more difficult to have offensive opportunities when you have to defend what you have.”
Mr. Cole said Republicans believed the presidential campaign would ultimately motivate their voters and donors and help them oust Democrats who in 2006 gained seats in Republican territories.
If Senator John McCain of Arizona wins the presidential nomination, Mr. Cole said, that could help Republicans in areas with significant Hispanic populations combined a strong antispending message that appeals to the party’s base.
Mr. McCain is also closely tied to a push for an overhaul of immigration policy that raised the prospect of permanent legal residency for some illegal immigrants. That could dilute the anti-immigration message that House Republicans have seen as one of their most effective weapons.
Mr. Davis is a veteran of the class of 1994 that thrust the Republicans into control of the House. He forged a reputation as an independent while he was the senior Republican on the House oversight committee, occasionally challenging the Bush administration. He represents a suburban district that Democrats view as a seat that could most easily fall in to their hands, along with open districts in Illinois, New Jersey, New York and Ohio.
Mr. Davis said his return to life in the minority party was just one factor in deciding to leave, saying he wanted a sabbatical from politics to look into other opportunities. The congressman, who oversaw the House Republican campaign operation in 2000 and 2002, acknowledged that the landscape for his party was not promising.
“There isn’t any question it is going to be a tough year,” he said.
Four of the 28 Republicans who are so far leaving the House quit before their terms ended. They will be replaced in special elections before November, giving the winners of those races at least the technical mantle of incumbency in the general election.
That leaves 24 open Republican seats, though leaders of both parties expect at least a few more Republican retirements as state filing deadlines arrive. The high point for end-of-session Republican retirements is 27 in 1952, according to Congressional records.
Democrats were reveling in the departures.
“Clearly, it’s a sign that they see no prospect of Republicans regaining control of the House in the near future, and in fact the trend seems to be heading in the other direction,” said Representative Christopher Van Hollen of Maryland, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
The financial disparity buoys Democrats, as well, particularly when Republicans have historically held an edge in raising money. Political strategists say money follows money, meaning that low Republican fund-raising totals discourage donors and encourage giving to Democrats.
It is not just the party organizations with such a differential. Individual Democratic candidates are faring very well. Representative Melissa Bean, an Illinois Democrat who has been a top national target of Republicans the last two elections, has $1.3 million in the bank. Her challenger, Steven Greenberg, a businessman, has $60,000, though he is wealthy and is expected to spend some of his own money in the fall campaign.
In the Senate, Republican retirements have also shifted the playing field, with six Republicans leaving and no Democrats retiring so far.
“We are still nine months away, and things just keep getting better,” said Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
(http://www.nytimes.com)
By CARL HULSE and DAVID M. HERSZENHORN
Published: January 31, 2008
WASHINGTON — A swelling exodus of senior Republican incumbents from the House, worsened by a persistent disadvantage in campaign money, threatens to cripple Republican efforts to topple the Democratic majority in November.
Representative Tom Davis, a moderate from Northern Virginia, on Wednesday became the fifth House Republican in the last week to announce that he would not seek re-election.
That puts the roster of retirees at 28, one of the highest numbers recorded for the party in the House.
With only five Democratic seats opening so far, party strategists and independent analysts say the disparity in open seats — typically the most competitive House fights, as voters oust relatively few incumbents — makes it highly unlikely that Republicans could seize the seats necessary to regain the House. The current House has 199 Republicans and 232 Democrats, with four vacancies to be filled by special elections.
“The open-seat situation is so lopsided as to deny Republicans any chance of taking back the House in 2008,” said David Wasserman, who analyzes House races for The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan publication.
Compounding their problems, Republicans face a worrisome financial gap in comparison to House Democrats. New fund-raising figures to be made public on Thursday will show that the national campaign committee of the House Democrats ended 2007 with $35 million in the bank and $1.3 million in debt. The Republicans’ committee had $5 million in the bank and $2 million in debt.
Senate Democrats, who intend to report $29.4 million in the bank with $1.5 million in debt, are expected to be comfortably ahead of Republicans in the holdings of their campaign committees as well. The National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee would not make its year-end fund-raising figures available on Wednesday.
Republicans concede that they are in a difficult spot.
“It is a challenge,” said Representative Tom Cole of Oklahoma, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. “What this does is make it more difficult to have offensive opportunities when you have to defend what you have.”
Mr. Cole said Republicans believed the presidential campaign would ultimately motivate their voters and donors and help them oust Democrats who in 2006 gained seats in Republican territories.
If Senator John McCain of Arizona wins the presidential nomination, Mr. Cole said, that could help Republicans in areas with significant Hispanic populations combined a strong antispending message that appeals to the party’s base.
Mr. McCain is also closely tied to a push for an overhaul of immigration policy that raised the prospect of permanent legal residency for some illegal immigrants. That could dilute the anti-immigration message that House Republicans have seen as one of their most effective weapons.
Mr. Davis is a veteran of the class of 1994 that thrust the Republicans into control of the House. He forged a reputation as an independent while he was the senior Republican on the House oversight committee, occasionally challenging the Bush administration. He represents a suburban district that Democrats view as a seat that could most easily fall in to their hands, along with open districts in Illinois, New Jersey, New York and Ohio.
Mr. Davis said his return to life in the minority party was just one factor in deciding to leave, saying he wanted a sabbatical from politics to look into other opportunities. The congressman, who oversaw the House Republican campaign operation in 2000 and 2002, acknowledged that the landscape for his party was not promising.
“There isn’t any question it is going to be a tough year,” he said.
Four of the 28 Republicans who are so far leaving the House quit before their terms ended. They will be replaced in special elections before November, giving the winners of those races at least the technical mantle of incumbency in the general election.
That leaves 24 open Republican seats, though leaders of both parties expect at least a few more Republican retirements as state filing deadlines arrive. The high point for end-of-session Republican retirements is 27 in 1952, according to Congressional records.
Democrats were reveling in the departures.
“Clearly, it’s a sign that they see no prospect of Republicans regaining control of the House in the near future, and in fact the trend seems to be heading in the other direction,” said Representative Christopher Van Hollen of Maryland, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
The financial disparity buoys Democrats, as well, particularly when Republicans have historically held an edge in raising money. Political strategists say money follows money, meaning that low Republican fund-raising totals discourage donors and encourage giving to Democrats.
It is not just the party organizations with such a differential. Individual Democratic candidates are faring very well. Representative Melissa Bean, an Illinois Democrat who has been a top national target of Republicans the last two elections, has $1.3 million in the bank. Her challenger, Steven Greenberg, a businessman, has $60,000, though he is wealthy and is expected to spend some of his own money in the fall campaign.
In the Senate, Republican retirements have also shifted the playing field, with six Republicans leaving and no Democrats retiring so far.
“We are still nine months away, and things just keep getting better,” said Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
(http://www.nytimes.com)
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