31.12.08

Continuing jobless claims rise sharply in December

Continuing jobless claims rise sharply in December

WASHINGTON – The number of laid-off workers continuing to draw unemployment benefits has surged again, as finding new jobs becomes even more difficult amid a deepening recession.

The Labor Department reported Wednesday that people continuing to draw unemployment benefits increased by a larger-than-expected 140,000 to 4.5 million for the week ending Dec. 20, the most recent period for which that information is available. That was the most since early December 1982, when the country was emerging from a deep recession, though the labor force has grown by about half since then.

A year ago, the number of people continuing to draw jobless benefitswas 2.7 million.

The department's report also showed that the number of newly laid-off workers filing first-time applications for jobless benefits dropped by a seasonally adjusted 94,000 to 492,000 for the week ending Dec. 27.

That decline, however, didn't signal any improvement in labor conditions. The drop — while bigger than economists expected — was mostly related to seasonal adjustment difficulties and reflected some out-of-work people not making it to unemployment offices to file claims over the Christmas holiday, analysts said.

Even with the drop, new filings remained elevated. A year ago, claims stood at 339,000.

Similarly, the four-week moving average of first-time jobless claims, which smooths out week-to-week fluctuations, fell last week to 552,250, a decrease of 5,750 from the prior week. A year ago, this figure was 344,500.

Economists expected so-called "continued" claims to rise to around 4.38 million, and that first-time applications for unemployment benefits would drop to around 550,000.

On Wall Street, investors took some comfort in the drop in first-timeunemployment claims. The Dow Jones industrials were up about 60 points in morning trading.

Next week's jobless claims report is likely to be distorted by another shortened holiday week because of New Year's Day, analysts said.

"The bottom line here is that it probably won't be until mid-January that we begin to get a clear picture of what claims are saying," said Abiel Reinhart, economist at JPMorgan Chase Bank.

Employers have slashed payrolls as they scramble to cut costs. The deepening recession, disappearing jobs, shriveling nest eggs and tanking home values have forced consumers to cut back, which is hurting businesses.

Atlanta-based Interface Inc. on Tuesday said it will lay off about 530 employees to cope with weakening demand for its carpet products.

Other companies that announced mass layoffs recently include: technology services provider Unisys Corp., pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb Co., International Paper Co. and Bank of America Corp.

The unemployment rate in November jumped to 6.7 percent, a 15-year high, as employers eliminated a staggering 533,000 jobs in that month alone. Since the recession began in December of 2007, the economy has lost nearly 2 million jobs.

Spurring job creation is a key priority for President-elect Barack Obama, who takes over on Jan. 20. He is contemplating a massive package of government spending and tax cuts to stimulate the economy.


26.12.08

Final Presidential Results

Final Presidential Results

(http://www.electoral-vote.com/)

Not a lot of political news on Christmas day, but here is some reworked old news. Below are the final results (taken from the Wikipedia's presidential election page). In a few cases, the rounding is slightly different from the earlier results posted here. The map software uses integers, so for each candidate, the percentage of the total vote was computed and rounded to the nearest integer, then the map drawn. This algorithm could give slightly different results in a few cases than doing all the computations to several decimal places. If you want to play with the data, they are available in Excel format and .csv format. For example, you could sort the states by Nader's percentage or whatever. These files are also on the Data galore page (on the menu) in case you want them in the future. Nebraska is colored purple below because although McCain got more votes in the state than Obama, Obama won one of the electoral votes (NE-02).

State Obama McCain Nader Barr Baldwin McKinney Others Total
Alabama 813,479 1,266,546 6,788 4,991 4,310 0 3,705 2,099,819
Alaska 123,594 193,841 3,783 1,589 1,660 0 1,730 326,197
Arizona 1,034,707 1,230,111 11,301 12,555 1,371 3,406 24 2,293,475
Arkansas 422,310 638,017 12,882 4,776 4,023 3,470 1,139 1,086,617
California 8,274,473 5,011,781 108,381 67,582 3,145 38,774 57,764 13,561,900
Colorado 1,288,576 1,073,589 13,350 10,897 6,233 2,822 5,894 2,401,361
Connecticut 997,772 629,428 19,162   311 90 29 1,646,792
Delaware 255,459 152,374 2,401 1,109 626 385 58 412,412
District of Columbia 245,800 17,367 958     590 1,138 265,853
Florida 4,282,074 4,045,624 28,124 17,218 7,915 2,887 6,902 8,390,744
Georgia 1,844,137 2,048,744 1,123 28,812 1,305 249 62 3,924,432
Hawaii 325,871 120,566 3,825 1,314 1,013 979   453,568
Idaho 236,440 403,012 7,175 4,747 3,658     655,032
Illinois 3,419,673 2,031,527 30,952 19,645 8,256 11,838 1,160 5,523,051
Indiana 1,374,039 1,345,648 909 29,257 1024 87 90 2,751,054
Iowa 828,940 682,379 8,014 4,590 4,445 1,423 7,332 1,537,123
Kansas 514,765 699,655 10,527 6,706 4,148 35 36 1,235,872
Kentucky 751,985 1,048,462 15,378 5,989 4,694     1,826,508
Louisiana 782,989 1,148,275 6,997   2,581 9,187 10,732 1,960,761
Maine 421,923 295,273 10,636     2,900 431 731,163
Maryland 1,629,467 959,862 14,713 9,842 3,760 4,747 9,205 2,631,596
Massachusetts 1,904,097 1,108,854 28,841 13,189 4,971 6,550 14,483 3,080,985
Michigan 2,872,579 2,048,639 33,085 23,716 14,685 8,892 170 5,001,766
Minnesota 1,573,354 1,275,409 30,152 9,174 6,787 5,174 10,319 2,910,369
Mississippi 554,662 724,597 4,011 2,529 2,551 1,034 481 1,289,865
Missouri 1,441,911 1,445,814 17,813 11,386 8,201 80   2,925,205
Montana 231,667 242,763 3,686 1,355     10,638 490,109
Nebraska 333,319 452,979 5,406 2,740 2,972 1,028 2,837 801,281
Nevada 533,736 412,827 6,150 4,263 3,194 1,411 6,267 967,848
New Hampshire 384,826 316,534 3,503 2,217 226 40 3,624 710,970
New Jersey 2,215,422 1,613,207 21,298 8,441 3,956 3,636 2,277 3,868,237
New Mexico 472,422 346,832 5,327 2,428 1,597 1,552   830,158
New York 4,769,700 2,742,298 41,086 19,513 614 12,729 8,873 7,594,813
North Carolina 2,142,651 2,128,474   25,722     13,942 4,310,789
North Dakota 141,278 168,601 4,189 1,354 1,199     316,621
Ohio 2,933,388 2,674,491 42,288 19,888 12,550 8,513 7,142 5,698,260
Oklahoma 502,496 960,165           1,462,661
Oregon 1,037,291 738,475 18,614 7,635 7,693 4,543 13,613 1,827,864
Pennsylvania 3,276,363 2,655,885 42,977 19,912       5,995,137
Rhode Island 296,571 165,391 4,829 1,382 675 797 122 469,767
South Carolina 862,449 1,034,896 5,053 7,283 6,827 4,461   1,920,969
South Dakota 170,924 203,054 4,267 1,835 1,895     381,975
Tennessee 1,087,437 1,479,178 11,560 8,547 8,191 2,499 2,337 2,599,749
Texas 3,528,633 4,479,328 5,214 56,116 5,052 671 2,781 8,077,795
Utah 327,670 596,030 8,416 6,966 12,012 982 294 952,370
Vermont 219,262 98,974 3,339 1,067 500   1,904 325,046
Virginia 1,959,532 1,725,005 11,483 11,067 7,474 2,344 6,355 3,723,260
Washington 1,750,848 1,229,216 29,489 12,728 9,432 3,819 1,346 3,036,878
West Virginia 303,857 397,466 7,219   2,465 2,355 89 713,451
Wisconsin 1,677,211 1,262,393 17,605 8,858 5,072 4,216 8,062 2,983,417
Wyoming 82,868 164,958 2,525 1,594 1,192   1,521 254,658
U.S. Total 69,456,897 59,934,814 736,804 524,524 196,461 161,195 226,908 131,237,603

22.12.08

Full Cabinet Named Quickly - fastest of any President in 32 years

Full Cabinet Named Quickly (www.electoral-vote.com)

President-elect Barack Obama named his full cabinet the fastest of any President in 32 years. It is a highly educated batch, with 80% having graduate degrees. Here is the list.

Position Cabinet officer Bachelors Degree Graduate School
Attorney General Eric Holder Columbia Univ. J.D. Columbia Law School
Secretary of Agriculture former Gov. Tom Vilsack Hamilton Coll. J.D. Albany Law School
Secretary of Commerce Gov. Bill Richardson Tufts Univ. M.A. Tufts Univ.
Secretary of Defense Robert Gates Coll. of William & Mary Ph.D. Georgetown
Secretary of Education Arne Duncan Harvard Univ. -
Secretary of Energy Steven Chu Univ. of Rochester Ph.D. Univ. of California at Berkeley
Secretary of Health and Human Services former Sen. Tom Daschle South Dakota State Univ. -
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Shaun Donovan Harvard Univ. M.A. Harvard Univ.
Secretary of Homeland Security Gov. Janet Napolitano Santa Clara Univ. J.D. Univ. of Virginia Law School
Secretary of the Interior Sen. Ken Salazar Colorado Coll. J.D. Univ. of Michigan Law School
Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis Cal State Polytechnic M. Public Admin., USC
Secretary of State Sen. Sen. Hillary Clinton Wellesley College J.D. Yale Univ. Law School
Secretary of Transportation Rep. Ray LaHood Bradley Univ. -
Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner Dartmouth Coll. M.A. Johns Hopkins Univ.
Secretary of Veterans Affairs Gen. Eric Shinseki USMA West Point M.A. Duke Univ.

During the campaign, some people were saying Obama would turn the country over to black people. He certainly didn't do that with the cabinet. Here is the ethnic/gender breakdown.

  Male Female
White 7 2
Black 1 0
Latino 2 1
Asian 2

9.12.08

World could face a decade-long slump: Krugman


(SOURCE: www.timesofindia.com)


9 Dec 2008, 1603 hrs IST, REUTERS


Nice to be right on the money along with Nobel laureate (like Japanese 1990’s economy)


STOCKHOLM: The world economy will likely feel the impact of the global financial turmoil for another three years at least, the 2008 winner of Nobel economics prize Paul Krugman said on Monday.

"We could easily be talking about a world economy that is depressed into 2011 and even beyond," the Princeton University professor and New York Times columnist told reporters in Stockholm, where he will receive his Nobel prize this week.

"The scenario I fear is that we'll see for the whole world the equivalent of Japan's lost decade in the 1990s, that we'll see a world of zero interest rates and inflation and no sign of recovery and it will just go on for a very, very extended period," he said.

"On top of that, we'll have a series of extremely severe crises in particular countries in trouble," he predicted, pointing out that "we certainly see the roots of ... Argentina- or Indonesia-style crises ... particularly in the European periphery."

As for the United States, Krugman, who has previously said that a stimulus plan of at least four percent of the US gross domestic product is needed next year, said on Monday that amount might not be enough.

"If you're serious about the size of the hole that needs to be filled, that's actually modest," he said, stressing that that amount "is not enough to prevent a further decline in the economy. It's enough to prevent a sharp decline."

The falling US housing market, which triggered the global financial crisis, will probably continue to weaken, he said, pointing out that recent estimates show "we have another 10 to 15 percent to go."

Krugman, who won the Nobel prize for his work on the impact of free trade and globalisation, said Washington should not hesitate to spend on infrastructure that would provide long-term benefit to the country, even if it means running up a high deficit in the short term.

"We're probably in the US going to run a deficit of seven or eight percent of GDP next year. That's clearly not something you can do indefinitely," he said.

"If it's two years of massive stimulus and massive debts, that's okay. If it's two years of that, and no sign that anything is getting better then I start to worry," he added.

Krugman will receive his Nobel gold medal and diploma along with 10 million Swedish kronor (1.2 million dollars, 929,000 euros) at a formal prize ceremony in Stockholm on December 10.

Half of rescued borrowers default anyway

Half of rescued borrowers default anyway

Top federal regulator says many mortgages that are modified end up in default within 6 months.

By Tami Luhby, CNNMoney.com senior writer

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- More than half of delinquent homeowners whose mortgages were modified earlier this year ended up redefaulting within six months, a top bank regulator said Monday.

Some 53% of borrowers with loans modified in the first three months of 2008 and 51% of those with loans modified in the second quarter could not keep up with payments within six months, according to U.S. Comptroller John Dugan, who spoke at a housing conference.

The report, which will be released in full next week, covers nearly 35 million loans worth a total of $6 trillion -- or 60% of all primary mortgages in the United States.

The high redefault rate raises concerns about the long-term effectiveness of loan modifications, which many are pushing as a key solution to the nation's financial crisis.

A record 1.35 million homes are in foreclosure, while the number of borrowers who have fallen behind on their payments soared to a record 6.99%, the Mortgage Bankers Association said last week.

Meanwhile, 1.7 million homeowners have been helped in 2008 through the Hope Now Alliance, a coalition of lenders, servicers, investors and counselors working with delinquent borrowers on modifications and repayment plans.

Dugan said the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency is asking servicers for more details on the loans in his report to determine what went wrong. He wants to know whether the modifications reduced the monthly payments to affordable levels or whether the borrowers had too much other debt to keep their head above water.

"These answers are important, because they have important ramifications for the foreclosure crisis and how policymakers should address loan modifications, as they surely will in the coming weeks and months," Dugan said.

Other regulators speaking at the conference questioned the quality of the loan modifications, saying that early efforts to restructure loans were not very effective. Many simply tacked on the missed payments and penalties to the end of the loan.

"The quality of the modifications are not what they should be," said FDIC Chairwoman Sheila Bair, a vocal proponent of adjusting loans by reducing interest rates, extending loan terms and deferring principal. Also, verifying income is very important.

Modifications that include an interest rate reduction have a 15% redefault rate, said Bair, citing a recent Credit Suisse study.

Last month, Bair unveiled a plan to address the foreclosure crisis by modifying loans to as low as 31% of a borrower's gross monthly income. This could be done by setting interest rates to as low as 3% or extending loan terms to 40 years. Principal could also be deferred free of interest to the end of the loan.

To entice servicers and investors to participate, Bair's plan calls for the government would share up to 50% of losses should the loan redefault. But that guarantee only kicks in after the borrower has made six monthly payments to better ensure the mortgage modification is sustainable long-term. It would cost $24.4 billion, which Bair has said could come from the rescue funds.

Bair's efforts have been widely praised, but the Bush administration has yet to act on it.

As the housing crisis continues to spin out of control, lawmakers, economists and community activists are increasingly demanding that financial institutions and the Bush administration do more to help homeowners by modifying loans to affordable monthly payments.

In recent months, banks and federal agencies such as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) have stepped up efforts to adjust loans so that payments are no more than 38% of a borrower's monthly income.

Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass, who heads the powerful House Financial Services Committee, said Monday that Congress will not give the Bush administration the $350 billion left in the $700 billion financial system bailout package unless loan modifications are part of the plan.

However, other regulators said that federal money may be better spent on economic stimulus and job creation since a growing number of foreclosures are caused by unemployment. In those cases, loan modifications won't help.

The unemployment rate soared to 6.7% and is expected to go higher with companies announcing massive downsizings almost daily.

"I have to wonder whether or not focusing on job creation..is a better way to focus federal dollars than on a loan modification process that may be only partially effective," said John Reich, director of the Office of Thrift Supervision. To top of page


7.12.08

I have been saying this for 6 months Thank You Mr. President

Obama: Economy to get worse before it improves

By DAVID ESPO, AP Special Correspondent David Espo, Ap Special Correspondent Sun Dec 7, 10:36 pm ET

WASHINGTON – President-elect Barack Obama said Sunday the economy will get worse before it gets better, pledged a recovery plan "equal to the task" and warned lawmakers that the days of pork barrel spending are over.

Less than six weeks before his inauguration, Obama declined to say how large an economic stimulus plan he envisions. He said his blueprint for recovery will include help for homeowners facing foreclosure on their mortgages if President George W. Bush has not acted by Inauguration Day, Jan. 20.

"We've got to provide a blood infusion to the patient right now to make sure that the patient is stabilized. And that means that we can't worry short term about the deficit. We've got to make sure that the economic stimulus plan is large enough to get the economy moving," he said.

Obama made his comments on NBC's "Meet the Press," in his most extensive interview since winning the White House more than a month ago, and later at a news conference in Chicago.

The president-elect said it is important that domestic carmakers survive the current crisis, although he accused the industry's executives of taking a "head in the sand approach" that has prevented their companies from becoming more competitive.

"Congress is doing the exact right thing by asking for a conditions-based assistance package that holds the industry's feet to the fire and gives the industry some short-term assistance," he said.
In addition to the policy issues, Obama avoided a direct answer when asked whether he has quit cigarettes as he prepares to move into a no-smoking White House.

"I have done a terrific job, under the circumstances, of making myself much healthier. And I think that you will not see any violations of these rules in the White House," he said.

Obama called the news conference to introduce retired Gen. Eric Shinseki as his choice to head the Veterans Affairs Department. Shinseki, who was a four-star general, was forced into retirement five years ago by the Bush administration after saying the president's plans to invade Iraq required more troops.

Shinseki pledged to build a "smooth, error-free, no-fail benefits-assured transition" back to civilian life for veterans.

Twice in the opening moments of the NBC interview, the president-elect said the economic situation "is going to get worse before it gets better," an unspoken plea with voters to have patience as the incoming administration tries to grapple with the issue.

He announced plans Saturday for the largest public works spending program since the creation of the interstate highway system a half-century ago, although he said aides are still debating among themselves how much it should cost.

"What we need to do is examine, what are the projects where we're going to get the most bang for the buck? How are we going to make sure taxpayers are protected? You know, the days of just pork coming out of Congress as a strategy, those days are over," he said.

Some lawmakers have mentioned an economic aid plan in the range of $500 billion or higher, and Democratic leaders say they hope to have legislation ready soon after Jan. 20.

The economic indicators have darkened since Obama's election, and Friday's report that 533,000 jobs were lost in November was the worst performance in more than 30 years. Unemployment stands at 6.7 percent, retailers are reporting weak holiday sales and the credit markets have yet to recover from the freeze that led Congress to approve a $700 billion bailout before the election.

Turning to foreign policy, the president-elect sidestepped a question about the pace of a troop withdrawal from Iraq, saying he would direct U.S. generals to come up with a plan "for a responsible drawdown." He said in the campaign he wanted most U.S. troops withdrawn within 16 months, but did not say then, nor has he now, how large a deployment should be left behind.

"We are going to maintain a large enough force in the region to assure that our civilian troops or our civilian personnel and our embassies are protected, to make sure that we can ferret out any remaining terrorist activity in the region" and providing training support for Iraqi personnel.

He did not respond directly when asked whether he believes India should have the right to pursue terrorist targets inside Pakistan in the wake of the deadly attacks in Mumbai. He also said he wants to "reset U.S.-Russian relations" following the Bush era.

"They are increasingly assertive and when it comes to Georgia and their threats against their neighboring countries I think they've been acting in a way that's contrary to international norms," he said of Kremlin leaders.

The president-elect declined to comment on the possible appointment of Caroline Kennedy to New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's seat in the Senate. Obama tapped Clinton recently as his secretary of state.

___
Associated Press writers Stephen Ohlemacher in Washington and Philip Elliott in Chicago contributed to this report.
Copyright © 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
Copyright © 2008 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved.

5.12.08

Spot on prediction for Dec, 2008 (6.7% Unemployment)

Employers cut 533K jobs in Nov., most in 34 years

WASHINGTON – Skittish employers slashed 533,000 jobs in November, the most in 34 years, catapulting the unemployment rate to 6.7 percent, dramatic proof the country is careening deeper into recession.

The new figures, released by the Labor Department Friday, showed the crucial employment market deteriorating at an alarmingly rapid clip, and handed Americans some more grim news right before the holidays. The net loss of more than a half-million jobs was far worse than analysts expected.

As companies throttled back hiring, the unemployment rate bolted from 6.5 percent in October to 6.7 percent last month, a 15-year high.

"These numbers are shocking," said economist Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economics Advisors. "Companies are sharply reacting to the economy's problems and slashing costs. They are not trying to ride it out."

The unemployment rate would have moved even higher if not for the exodus of 422,000 people from the work force. Economists said many of those people probably abandoned their job searches out of sheer frustration. In November 2007, the jobless rate was at 4.7 percent.

The U.S. tipped into recession last December, a panel of experts declared earlier this week, confirming what many Americans already thought.

Since the start of the recession, the economy has lost 1.9 million jobs, the number of unemployed people increased by 2.7 million and the jobless rate rose by 1.7 percentage points. More evidence that the labor pain is far from over came Friday when General Motors Corp. said it will lay off another 2,000 workers as it cuts shifts at three car factories starting in February due to slowing demand for their products.

President George W. Bush, who used the word "recession" for the first time to describe the economy's state, pledged Friday to explore more efforts to ease housing, credit and financial stresses.

"There is still more work to do," Bush said. "My administration is committed to ensuring that our economy succeeds."

President-elect Barack Obama said the dismal job news underscored the need for forceful action, even as he warned that the pain could not be quickly relieved.

"There are no quick or easy fixes to this crisis ... and it's likely to get worse before it gets better," Obama said. "At the same time, this ... provides us with an opportunity to transform our economy to improve the lives of ordinary people by rebuilding roads and modernizing schools for our children, investing in clean energy solutions to break our dependence on imported oil, and making an early down payment on the long-term reforms that will grow and strengthen our economy for all Americans for years to come."

To provide relief, the Bush administration will continue to concentrate on ways to bust through a credit jam that is feeding prominently into the economy's problems, Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez told The Associated Press in an interview. "We're going to stay focused on that like a laser," he said.

Elsewhere Friday, the Mortgage Bankers Association said a record one in 10 American homeowners with a mortgage were either at least a month behind on their payments or in foreclosure at the end of September. The percentage of loans at least a month overdue or in foreclosure was up from 9.2 percent in the April-June quarter, and from 7.3 percent a year earlier.

On Wall Street, stocks slid. The Dow Jones industrials were down 130 points in afternoon trading.

Job losses last month were widespread, hitting factories, construction companies, financial firms, retailers, leisure and hospitality, and others industries. The few places where gains were logged included the government, education and health services.

The loss of 533,000 payroll jobs was much deeper than the 320,000 job cuts economists were forecasting. The rise in the unemployment rate, however, wasn't as steep as the 6.8 percent rate they were expecting. Taken together, though, the employment picture clearly darkening.

The job reductions were the most since a whopping 602,000 positions were slashed in December 1974, when the country was in a severe recession.

All told, 10.3 million people were left unemployed as of November, while the number of employed was 144.3 million.

Gary Cope, 33, this week lost his communications job at Roanoke, Va.-based high-tech research and development company Luna Innovations Inc.

Cope was called into a meeting first thing Thursday morning with two administrators and a human resources representative. Their message: He was being laid off, for financial reasons, effective immediately.

He left with a box of his belongings and about two months' severance. As Cope walked out the door, all he could think was, "I have a 3-year-old son and I'm a single dad."

"I came home and did my initial pity party, then I got myself together, talked to my family and went right to work" rewriting his resume and sending it out, Cope said. "My family has been very supportive, they've let me know I'll get through this and they won't let me drown."

Job losses in September and October also turned out to be much worse. Employers cut 403,000 jobs in September, versus 284,000 previously estimated. Another 320,000 were chopped in October, compared with an initial estimate of 240,000.

Employers are slashing costs as they cope with sagging appetites from customers in the U.S. and in other countries, which are struggling with their own economic troubles.

The carnage — including the worst financial crisis since the 1930s — is hitting a wide range of companies.

In recent days, AT&T Inc., DuPont, JPMorgan Chase & Co., as well as jet engine maker Pratt & Whitney, a subsidiary of United Technologies Corp., and mining company Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. announced layoffs.

Fighting for their survival, the chiefs of Chrysler LLC, General Motors and Ford Motor Co. returned to Capitol Hill Friday to again ask lawmakers for as much as $34 billion in emergency aid.

Workers with jobs saw modest wage gains. Average hourly earnings rose to $18.30 in November, a 0.4 percent increase from the previous month. Over the year, wages have grown 3.7 percent, but paychecks haven't stretched that far because of high prices for energy, food and other items.

Worn-out consumers battered by the job losses, shrinking nest eggs and tanking home values have retrenched, throwing the economy into a tailspin. As the unemployment rate continues to move higher, consumers will burrow further, dragging the economy down even more, a vicious cycle that Washington policymakers are trying to break.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is expected ratchet down a key interest rate — now near a historic low of 1 percent — by as much as a half-percentage point on Dec. 16 in a bid to breathe life into the moribund economy. Bernanke is exploring other economic revival options and wants the government to step up efforts to curb home foreclosures.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, whose department oversees the $700 billion financial bailout program, also is weighing new initiatives such as tapping the second half of that rescue money to ease the economic crisis.

Obama, who takes office on Jan. 20, has called for a massive economic recovery bill to generate 2.5 million jobs over his first two years in office. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has vowed to have a package ready on Inauguration Day for Obama's signature.

The measure, which could total $500 billion, would bankroll big public works projects to create jobs, provide aid to states to help with Medicaid costs, and provide money toward renewable energy development.

At 12 months and counting, the recession is longer than the 10-month average length of recessions since World War II. The record for the longest recession in the postwar period is 16 months, which was reached in the 1973-75 and 1981-82 downturns. The current recession might end up matching that or setting a record in terms of duration, analysts say.

The 1981-82 recession was the worst in terms of unemployment since the Great Depression. The jobless raterose as high as 10.8 percent in late 1982, just as the recession ended, before inching down.

Given the current woes, the jobless rate could rise as high as 8.5 percent by the end of next year, some analysts predict. Still, the unemployment rate often peaks after a recession has ended. That's because companies are reluctant to ramp up hiring until they feel certain the recovery has staying power.

 

4.12.08

Get Rid of the Performance Review!


  • OCTOBER 20, 2008



Get Rid of the Performance Review!

It destroys morale, kills teamwork and hurts the bottom line. And that's just for starters.

You can call me "dense," you can call me "iconoclastic," but I see nothing constructive about an annual pay and performance review. It's a mainstream practice that has baffled me for years.

To my way of thinking, a one-side-accountable, boss-administered review is little more than a dysfunctional pretense. It's a negative to corporate performance, an obstacle to straight-talk relationships, and a prime cause of low morale at work. Even the mere knowledge that such an event will take place damages daily communications and teamwork.

The alleged primary purpose of performance reviews is to enlighten subordinates about what they should be doing better or differently. But I see the primary purpose quite differently. I see it as intimidation aimed at preserving the boss's authority and power advantage. Such intimidation is unnecessary, though: The boss has the power with or without the performance review.

And yes, I have an alternative in mind that will get people and corporations a great deal more of what they actually need.

To make my case, I offer seven reasons why I find performance reviews ill-advised and bogus.

TWO PEOPLE, TWO MIND-SETS

Let's start with an obvious reason: The mind-sets held by the two participants in a performance review work at cross-purposes. The boss wants to discuss where performance needs to be improved, while the subordinate is focused on such small issues as compensation, job progression and career advancement. The boss is thinking about missed opportunities, skill limitations and relationships that could use enhancing, while the subordinate wants to put a best foot forward believing he or she is negotiating pay. All of this puts the participants at odds, talking past each other. At best, the discussion accomplishes nothing. More likely, it creates tensions that carry over to their everyday relationships.

Then there are second-order problems. A subordinate who objects to a characterization of faults runs the risk of adding another to the boss's list: "defensiveness and resistance to critique." And the boss who gets her mind turned around by a subordinate's convincing argument runs the risk of having a bigger boss think she failed to hold the line on what had been decided and budgeted. Good luck to her when she next gets evaluated.

PERFORMANCE DOESN'T DETERMINE PAY

Another bogus element is the idea that pay is a function of performance, and that the words being spoken in a performance review will affect pay. But usually they don't. I believe pay is primarily determined by market forces, with most jobs placed in a pay range prior to an employee's hiring.

Raises are then determined by the boss, and the boss's boss, largely as a result of the marketplace or the budget. The performance review is simply the place where the boss comes up with a story to justify the predetermined pay. If the raise is lower than the subordinate expects, the boss has to say, "We can work to get it higher in the future, and here are the things you need to do to get to that level." Or the boss can say, "I think you walk on water, but I got push-back from H.R. and next year we'll try again."

In other words, too many lines spoken in a performance review are a cover story for the truth and have little to do with performance. Even when it's a positive review, the words spoken are likely to be aimed more at winning the subordinate's gratitude than at providing a candidly accurate description.

OBJECTIVITY IS SUBJECTIVE

Most performance reviews are staged as "objective" commentary, as if any two supervisors would reach the same conclusions about the merits and faults of the subordinate. But consider the well-observed fact that when people switch bosses, they often receive sharply different evaluations from the new bosses to whom they now report.

To me, this is just further proof that claiming an evaluation can be "objective" is preposterous, as if any assessment is independent of that evaluator's motives in the moment. Missing are answers to questions like, "As seen by whom?" and "Spun for what?" Implying that an evaluation is objective disregards what everyone knows: Where you stand determines what you see.

The absurdity is even more obvious when bosses -- as they so often do -- base their reviews on anonymous feedback received from others. This illogic is highlighted in the contemporary performance-reviewing fad called "360-degree feedback." Hate mail, I suppose, is similarly "objective." People are told, "I can't tell you who said this," as if the alleged truth-teller has no ax to grind and the allegation is unrelated to a specific motive or a disagreement in a relationship. Come on! Isn't "anonymous" just a slicker way for people to push what's in their political interests to establish, without having their biases and motives questioned?

What will it take for people to really understand that any critique is as much an expression of the evaluator's self-interests as it is a subordinate's attributes or imperfections? To my way of thinking, the closest one can get to "objective" feedback is making an evaluator's personal preferences, emotional biases, personal agendas and situational motives for giving feedback sufficiently explicit, so that recipients can determine what to take to heart for themselves.

ONE SIZE DOES NOT FIT ALL

Employees all come with their own characteristics, strong suits and imperfections that they orchestrate in every attempt to perform their best. Because no two people come similarly equipped, they draw upon the unique pluses and minuses they were endowed with at birth along with compensatory assets they subsequently developed.

And yet in a performance review, employees are supposed to be measured along some predetermined checklist. In almost every instance what's being "measured" has less to do with what an individual was focusing on in attempting to perform competently and more to do with a checklist expert's assumptions about what competent people do. This is why pleasing the boss so often becomes more important than doing a good job. Create a positive impression and the boss will score you high on any dimension presented.

Worse, bosses apply the same rating scale to people with different functions. They don't redo the checklist for every different activity. As a result, bosses reduce their global sentiments to a set of metrics that captures the unique qualities of neither the person nor the job.

Maybe, for instance, there's a guy who doesn't voice his viewpoint when he disagrees with something said. Does that mean he should be graded down for being a conflict-avoider -- as if the boss's in-your-face way of communicating is superior? He may be seen as doing a bad job based solely on an incompatibility of styles that may have little to do with actual performance.

PERSONAL DEVELOPMENT IS IMPEDED

The drive for improvement goes on in big and little ways at work. You would think that the person in the best position to help somebody improve would be his or her boss.

Yet, thanks to the performance review, the boss is often the last person an employee would turn to.

Why is that?

The No. 1 reason for that reluctance is that employees want to turn to somebody who understands their distinctive talents and way of thinking, or knows them sufficiently well to appreciate the reasons behind the unique ways they are driven to operate. By contrast, people resist help from those who they believe can't get them in proper focus, especially when they have tried on many occasions to tell them.

What's more, people don't want to pay a high price for acknowledging their need for improvement -- which is exactly what they would do if they arm the boss with the kind of personal information he or she would need to help them develop. It could all come back to haunt them in the performance review. No wonder the developmental discussions the boss wants to inject at the time of a performance review so often get categorized by subordinates as gun-to-the-head intimidation requiring false acquiescence, lip-service agreement and insincere, appearance-correcting actions.

DISRUPTION TO TEAMWORK

Managers can talk until they are blue in the face about the importance of positive team play at every level of the organization, but the team play that's most critical to ensuring that an organization runs effectively is the one-on-one relationship between a boss and each of his or her subordinates.

The performance review undermines that relationship.

That's because the performance review is so one-sided, giving the boss all the power. The boss in the performance review thinks of himself or herself as the evaluator, and doesn't engage in teamwork with the subordinate. It isn't, "How are we going to work together as a team?" It's, "How are you performing for me?" It's not our joint performance that's at issue. It's the employee's performance that's a problem.

All of which leads to inauthentic behavior, daily deception and a ubiquitous need for subordinates to spin all facts and viewpoints in directions they believe the boss will find pleasing. It defeats any chance that the boss will hear what subordinates actually think.

Here's a simple example: In a performance review, the boss cites a subordinate's missing a high-profile meeting as cause for a reduced rating. What if the reason was something personal -- perhaps a son picked up by the police -- that the employee doesn't want to reveal? Why not reveal it? Because one-way accountability inevitably creates distrust. Does the boss self-reflect and ask, "What did I do, or should I be doing, to build up the trust?" No, the boss faults the guy for secretiveness. It's a vicious cycle.

IMMORALITY OF JUSTIFYING CORPORATE IMPROVEMENT

I believe it's immoral to maintain the facade that annual pay and performance reviews lead to corporate improvement, when it's clear they lead to more bogus activities than valid ones. Instead of energizing individuals, they are dispiriting and create cynicism. Instead of stimulating corporate effectiveness, they lead to just-in-case and cover-your-behind activities that reduce the amount of time that could be put to productive use. Instead of promoting directness, honesty and candor, they stimulate inauthentic conversations in which people cast self-interested pursuits as essential company activities.

The net result is a resource violation, and I think citations should be issued. If it's a publicly held company, shareholder value gets decreased. If it's a governmental organization, time is lost that could be spent in pursuit of the public good. And what participants learn in the process has more to do with how to survive than with meaningful self-development.

I've often thought that every organization should be considered partially a public entity since they exist, in part, to provide meaningful activities for the people who work in them. Skills and mind-sets acquired at work go home with people to affect family, community, culture and even the world. The more positive an atmosphere we can create at work, the more positive an impact it has at home. In short, what goes around comes around.

SO, WHAT'S THE ALTERNATIVE?

The alternative to one-side-accountable, boss-administered/subordinate-received performance reviews is two-side, reciprocally accountable, performance previews.

Let me explain.

The boss's assignment is to guide, coach, tutor, provide oversight and generally do whatever is required to assist a subordinate to perform successfully. That's why I claim that the boss-direct report team should be held jointly accountable for the quality of work the subordinate performs. I'm sick and tired of hearing about subordinates who fail and get fired, while bosses, whose job it was to ensure subordinate effectiveness, get promoted and receive raises in pay.

Holding performance previews eliminates the need for the boss to spout self-serving interpretations about what already has taken place and can't be fixed. Previews are problem-solving, not problem-creating, discussions about how we, as teammates, are going to work together even more effectively and efficiently than we've done in the past. They feature descriptive conversations about how each person is inclined to operate, using past events for illustrative purposes, and how we worked well or did not work well individually and together.

The preview structure keeps the focus on the future and what "I" need from you as "teammate and partner" in getting accomplished what we both want to see happen. It doesn't happen only annually; it takes place each time either the boss or the subordinate has the feeling that they aren't working well together.

Realistic assessment of someone's positive qualities requires replacing scores on standardized checklists with inquiry. As a result, step No. 1 in giving effective feedback almost always involves "active questioning" inquiry. Inquiry contrasts with most performance reviews, which begin with how the evaluator sees the individual and what that boss has already decided most needs enhancing. Both participants need an answer to the most significant issue at hand: "Given who I am and what I'm learning about this other individual, what's the best way for us to complement one another in getting work accomplished with excellence?" If in the process the other person decides to change and develop, so much the better.

Bosses should be asking all the questions that occur to them in inquiring about how a subordinate thinks he or she can best perform the job. Then, after they have exhausted their questions, they should ask the subordinate for what else they need to know. At a minimum, they should be asking "How will you be going about it?" and "Specifically, what help do you need from me?" Why not get it all when, at the end of the day, the boss still has the authority to play ultimate decider?

Some of you may also ask if the performance review goes away, how do we prepare the groundwork if we want to fire somebody? For the better, I'd argue: Take away the performance review, and people will find more direct ways of accomplishing that task.

Substituting performance previews for performance reviews promotes straight-talk relationships for people who are up to it. It welds fates together because the discussion will be about what the boss-subordinate team accomplishes together, which I believe is the valid unit to hold accountable. It's the boss's responsibility to find a way to work well with an imperfect individual, not to convince the individual there are critical flaws that need immediate correcting, which is all but guaranteed to lead to unproductive game playing and politically inspired back-stabbing.

There are many bosses who would like to change that game, but they feel handcuffed by the rules already in play. I'd like to believe that if given the chance, they would embrace a system that allows them just as much authority -- but in a way that promotes trust, not intimidation.

Keep in mind, of course, that improvement is each individual's own responsibility. You can only make yourself better. The best you can do for others is to develop a trusting relationship where they can ask for feedback and help when they see the need and feel sufficiently valued to take it. Getting rid of the performance review is a necessary, and affirming, step in that direction.

—Dr. Culbert is a consultant, author and professor of management at the UCLA Anderson School of Management in Los Angeles. He can be reached at reports@wsj.com.Copyright 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by ourSubscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visitwww.djreprints.com (SOURCE:http://online.wsj.com)


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