Trend - 8/4/08 Obama 316, McCain 209 Ties 13
Does the state of the economy predict the election? No, but it sure gives a hint. Here is a graph from Andrew Gelman, a professor of statistics and political science at Columbia University showing how the popular vote for the party incumbent in the White House relates to economic growth. There is clearly a strong correlation.
Based on this model, Obama is predicted to get 53% of the vote.
There are two clear outliers in the graph: 1952 and 1968. Both can be explained fairly directly. In neither year was the economy an issue at all. In 1952, the popular general Dwight Eisenhower, who won WWII, promised to end the stalemate that had been going on in Korea for two years. The hapless Adlai Stevenson wasn't running on continuing Harry Truman's economic policies. He wasn't even Truman's Vice President. In 1968, the economy was booming but the dominant issue was the unpopular war in Vietnam and the starting gun for the culture wars (fired by Mayor Daley's police force in what was later called a "police riot."). The economy wasn't on the agenda at all that year.
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