20.5.09

Free Loader (As an economics reporter for The New York Times)

Eight months after my last payment to the bank, I am still waiting for the ax to fall.

The New York Times


May 17, 2009

My Personal Credit Crisis

If there was anybody who should have avoided the mortgage catastrophe, it was I. As an economics reporter for The New York Times, I have been the paper’s chief eyes and ears on the Federal Reserve for the past six years. I watched Alan Greenspan and his successor, Ben S. Bernanke, at close range. I wrote several early-warning articles in 2004 about the spike in go-go mortgages. Before that, I had a hand in covering the Asian financial crisis of 1997, the Russia meltdown in 1998 and the dot-com collapse in 2000. I know a lot about the curveballs that the economy can throw at us.

But in 2004, I joined millions of otherwise-sane Americans in what we now know was a catastrophic binge on overpriced real estate and reckless mortgages. Nobody duped or hypnotized me. Like so many others — borrowers, lenders and the Wall Street dealmakers behind them — I just thought I could beat the odds. We all had our reasons. The brokers and dealmakers were scoring huge commissions. Ordinary homebuyers were stretching to get into first houses, or bigger houses, or better neighborhoods. Some were greedy, some were desperate and some were deceived.

As for me, I had two utterly compelling reasons for taking the plunge: the money was there, and I was in love. It was August 2004, just as the mortgage party was getting really good. I was 48 years old and eager to start a new chapter in my life with Patricia Barreiro, who was then my fiancée.

Patty was brainy, regal, sexy, fiery and eclectic. She was one of my closest friends when we were both students at an American high school in Argentina. Back then, we would talk together about politics and books at a coffee shop every day after school. We were not romantic in those days and went our separate ways after high school. But each of us would go through bruising two-decade-long marriages, and we felt that sweet spark of remembrance and renewal upon meeting again in middle age.

After a one-year bicoastal courtship, Patty was about to move from her home in Los Angeles to Washington. We would need a home with enough space for her two youngest children, as well as for my own teenage boys on the weekends. I had assumed we would start by renting a house or an apartment, but it quickly became clear that it was almost easier to borrow a half-million dollars and buy something.

Patty discovered a small but stately brick home in a leafy, kid-filled neighborhood in Silver Spring, Md. We sent in an offer of $460,000 and one day later got our answer: the sellers accepted. I felt both amazed and exhilarated, convinced that the stars had aligned for us. I loved the house as soon as I saw it. It was one block from a school and a park. My boys would be within a 15-minute drive, and it would be easy for them to come over and stay whenever they wanted.

The only problem was money. Having separated from my wife of 21 years, who had physical custody of our sons, I was handing over $4,000 a month in alimony and child-support payments. That left me with take-home pay of $2,777, barely enough to make ends meet in a one-bedroom rental apartment. Patty had yet to even look for a job. At any other time in history, the idea of someone like me borrowing more than $400,000 would have seemed insane.

But this was unlike any other time in history. My real estate agent gave me the number of Bob Andrews, a loan officer at American Home Mortgage Corporation. Bob wasn’t related to me, and I had never heard of his company. “Bob can be very helpful,” my agent explained. “He specializes in unusual situations.”

Bob returned my call right away. “How big a mortgage do you think you’ll need?” he asked.

“My situation is a little complicated,” I warned. I told him about my child support and alimony payments and said I was banking on Patty to earn enough money to keep us afloat. Bob cut me off. “I specialize in challenges,” he said confidently.

As I quickly found out, American Home Mortgage had become one of the fastest-growing mortgage lenders in the country. One of its specialties was serving people just like me: borrowers with good credit scores who wanted to stretch their finances far beyond what our incomes could justify. In industry jargon, we were “Alt-A” customers, and we usually paid slightly higher rates for the privilege of concealing our financial weaknesses.

I thought I knew a lot about go-go mortgages. I had already written several articles about the explosive growth of liar’s loans, no-money-down loans, interest-only loans and other even more exotic mortgages. I had interviewed people with very modest incomes who had taken out big loans. Yet for all that, I was stunned at how much money people were willing to throw at me.

Bob called back the next morning. “Your credit scores are almost perfect,” he said happily. “Based on your income, you can qualify for a mortgage of about $500,000.”

What about my alimony and child-support obligations? No need to mention them. What would happen when they saw the automatic withholdings in my paycheck? No need to show them. If I wanted to buy a house, Bob figured, it was my job to decide whether I could afford it. His job was to make it happen.

“I am here to enable dreams,” he explained to me long afterward. Bob’s view was that if I’d been unemployed for seven years and didn’t have a dime to my name but I wanted a house, he wouldn’t question my prudence. “Who am I to tell you that you shouldn’t do what you want to do? I am here to sell money and to help you do what you want to do. At the end of the day, it’s your signature on the mortgage — not mine.”

You had to admire this muscular logic. My lenders weren’t assuming that I was an angel. They were betting that a default would be more painful to me than to them. If I wanted to take a risk, for whatever reason, they were not going to second-guess me. What mattered more than anything, Bob explained, was a person’s credit record. History seemed to show that the most important predictor of whether people defaulted on their mortgages was their “FICO” score (named after the Fair Isaac Corporation, which developed the main rating system). If you always paid your debts on time before, the theory went, you would probably keep paying on time in the future.

Bob’s original plan was to write two mortgages, one for 80 percent of the purchase price and a piggyback loan for 10 percent. I would kick in the final 10 percent, cashing out a chunk of New York Times stock — my last. If I had been a normal borrower, the whole deal would have sailed through at a low interest rate. My $120,000 base salary and my assets were easy to document. But given my actual income after alimony and child support, I couldn’t possibly have qualified for a standard mortgage. Bob’s plan was to write a “stated-income loan,” or “liar’s loan,” so that I wouldn’t have to give the game away by producing paychecks or tax returns.

Unfortunately, Bob’s plan hit a snag a few days later. “Ed, the underwriters say that your name is on another mortgage,” he told me. “That means you’re carrying too much debt.”

The mortgage was on my old house, which I had turned over to my ex-wife. As part of our separation agreement, she accepted full legal responsibility for making the payments. But the separation agreement also spelled out exactly how much I had to pay each month to my ex-wife. If we showed it to the underwriters, they would reject me.

Bob didn’t get flustered. If Plan A didn’t work, he would simply move down another step on the ladder of credibility. Instead of “stating” my income without documenting it, I would take out a “no ratio” mortgage and not state my income at all. For the price of a slightly higher interest rate, American Home would verify my assets, but that was it. Because I wasn’t stating my income, I couldn’t have a debt-to-income ratio, and therefore, I couldn’t have too much debt. I could have had four other mortgages, and it wouldn’t have mattered. American Home was practically begging me to take the money.

Despite the obvious red flag of applying for a Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell loan, I wasn’t paying that much for the money. The rate on my primary mortgage of $333,700 was a remarkably low 5.625 percent for the first five years, though my monthly payments would probably jump substantially after the fifth year. On top of that, I was paying a much higher rate of 8.5 percent on my “piggyback” loan for $80,300. Even so, I would be paying slightly more than $2,500 a month for the first five years. It would get expensive eventually, but I could worry about that later.

“Don’t worry,” Bob reassured me, saying what almost everybody else in real estate was saying at that moment. “The value of your house will be higher in five years. You’ll be able to refinance.”

As I walked out of the settlement office with my loan papers, I couldn’t shake the sense of having just done something bad . . . but also kind of cool. I had just come up with almost a half-million dollars, and I had barely lifted a finger. It had been so easy and fast. Almost fun. I couldn’t help feeling like a high roller, a sophisticated player who could lay his hands on big money at a moment’s notice. Despite my nagging anxiety about the gamble that Patty and I were taking, I had whipped through the pile of loan documents in less than 45 minutes.

***

The icy slap of reality hit me two weeks after New Year’s Day in January 2005. We had been living in our new house for five months. I walked out of The Times’s Washington bureau, several blocks from the White House, and crossed Farragut Square to my bank. I had a bad feeling about what the A.T.M. would reveal about my balance, but I was shocked when I looked at the receipt: $196. We were broke.

My stomach churning, I reached Patty on her cellphone as she was running errands. “We are out of money,” I snapped, skipping over any warm-up chat.

“What do you mean, we’re out of money?” she asked in bewilderment.

“I mean, I just checked my bank account, and we are out of money,” I repeated, my voice rising in panic. “We can’t buy anything!”

My next paycheck would come in about a day or so, but that was entirely reserved for the February mortgage payment. We didn’t have enough cash to cover more than a week’s worth of groceries and gasoline. For the last few months we were living off the cash left over after I sold my Times stock and we bought the house. But now it was gone.

“How the hell could we have run through so much money so quickly?” I asked her accusingly.

Patty wasn’t sharing my shock. “I don’t know what’s going on,” she responded. “Let’s talk about it when you get home.”

Patty had spent much of the two previous decades as a stay-at-home mother in Los Angeles. Her last full-time job, as an editor at a political research company, was back in the early 1980s. Not surprisingly, Patty’s re-entry into the job market was bumpy. When Saks Fifth Avenue offered her a full-time job selling high-end clothing on commission — something she knew about and loved — she grabbed it. But with her take-home income averaging only about $2,400 a month, we didn’t make enough to cover our bills because my take-home pay was going straight to the mortgage. We were spending way more than we were earning.

In the euphoria of moving in together, we both succumbed to magical thinking about ourselves, as well as about money. My fantasy was that Patty would become an ambitious go-getter. “This can really be an exciting new chapter of your life,” I kept telling her. Patty had a very different dream. “I feel as if I am finally at home,” she exclaimed as soon as we moved into the house. She could settle down and do the things she had always been best at: making a new home, nurturing her children and loving me. One way or another, she figured, we would earn enough money to make good on our glorious gamble.

We had very different ideas about money. Patty spent little on herself, but she refused to scrimp on top-quality produce, Starbucks coffee, bottled juices, fresh cheeses and clothing for the children and for me. She regularly bought me new shirts and ties to replace the frayed and drab ones in my closet. She thought it wasn’t worth agonizing over nickels and dimes. I was almost exactly the opposite. My answer to any money squeeze was to stop spending. I would skip lunch at work to save $7. If I arrived at the Metro just before the end of rush hour, I would wait for five minutes to save 50 cents on the fare.

We were both building up grudges. “You can’t keep second-guessing me,” she told me angrily. “It’s small-minded and petty, and it’s not very attractive.” I was beginning to wonder whether she had any clue about how money worked. We were lurching from paycheck to paycheck, one big home repair away from disaster.

Meanwhile, neither of us was paying attention to how easy our bank had made it to build up debt. The key was the overdraft protection — more accurately described as “bounced-check loans.” Every time I overdrew my checking account by even a few dollars, the bank would tap my MasterCard for $100, helpfully deposit the cash in my account and charge me $10 for the privilege.

Patty and I were now unwittingly tapping into our credit line at a terrifying pace: $5 overdrawn because of school supplies for Patty’s daughter Emily — $100 from the MasterCard. Fifteen bucks over because of gasoline? Another $100 from the MasterCard. Groceries for $305? No problem! Uncle MasterCard would front us $400.

Our debt spiraled up faster than I had ever dreamed possible. Chase Bank had cold-called me to offer a “platinum” card with no interest charges for the first six months. I took them up on it and shifted $3,000 in debt from my old card onto the new Chase card. But instead of paying down the balance before the interest charges began, I let it balloon to $6,000. Chase had sent us blank checks that we could use to either pay bills or give ourselves cash advances. I dismissed them as a cheap trick to lure dimwits into borrowing more money. In March, I grabbed one of the checks and used it to pay down $1,000 on my more expensive credit card.

***

I felt like a crack addict calling up my dealer. It was April 2006, and I had just reached Bob Andrews, our once and future mortgage broker, on his cellphone.

I was surprised at how glad I was to hear his voice. In his own way, Bob knew more about my messy life than almost anybody else. He never seemed judgmental or condescending. Instead, he seemed to think that money trouble and failed marriages were natural parts of life, even for good people with decent jobs. I felt relieved to have the chance to unload my problems and ask for his advice.

“Bob, we’re dying over here,” I wailed. “I can’t even explain how it happened, but we’ve got these unbelievable credit-card bills, and the minimum payments add up to almost $1,100 a month. There’s no way we can keep that up.”

I had months and months of credit-card bills spread across the dining-room table, and I quickly confessed the full horror of what they contained. We were approaching $50,000 in credit-card debt alone, and it was amazing how fast and how deeply we had dug ourselves in. It was even more amazing how long we had avoided the screaming evidence of a train wreck in the making.

Patty had suddenly got the break that seemed to solve our problems. In November 2005, she was hired as a full-time editor at a nonprofit organization with a salary of $60,000 a year. The problem, I told Bob, was that things were so bad that even Patty’s new job wouldn’t be enough to rescue us. Chase was now charging us 13.99 percent on our platinum card, and the rate on our SunTrust card was up to 27 percent.

Between humongous loan balances and high rates, we had hung ourselves with the rope they gave us. In the previous December alone, we charged $2,845 on the Chase card for Christmas gifts, food, gasoline, clothing and other expenses. The charges included almost $350 for groceries, $700 in clothes from J. Crew, $179 at GapKids and $700 for airplane tickets for two of Patty’s children to visit their father in Los Angeles. Our balance climbed from $14,118 to $17,135, and in January 2006 we maxed out at our $19,000 credit limit. And there were other expenses on other cards: $1,200 in dental work for Patty’s son Ben; $1,600 to rent a beach house the previous year for us and all the children. Granted, the beach house was an embarrassing mistake. But given that Patty had landed a solid job, it seemed like an indulgence we could work off later.

I felt foolish, ashamed and angry as I confessed to Bob. Why had I been trying to live a lifestyle that I couldn’t afford? Why had I tried to keep up the image of a conventional suburban family man, when nothing about my situation was conventional? How could I have glossed over the fact that we had been spending about $3,000 more than we were earning, month after month after month? How could a person who wrote about economics for a living fall into the kind of credit-card trap that consumer groups had warned about for years?

“My inclination is to just raid my 401(k) account to pay off the cards,” I told Bob. “I know we’d be paying huge taxes and penalties for withdrawing money before retirement, but it’s not as bad as paying all that interest to the banks.”

“No!” Bob interrupted fiercely. “You don’t want to do that. You’ll be paying a basic tax rate of 28 percent, and they’ll hit you with another 10 percent penalty. You’d be giving up 40 percent in taxes. There’s got to be a better way.”

I gave Bob permission to pull a credit report on us, and by the next day, he had come up with a scheme that was either wickedly smart or proof that the big-money people had gone mad. Or both.

“What we’re going to do is a two-step plan,” he announced. “The bad news is that your credit scores are down, so we can’t just do a simple refinance. But the good news is that you’ve owned your house for a year and a half, and it’s gone up in value. So you can borrow against the equity. So in the first step of the plan, we’re going to get you a really ugly mortgage that is big enough to pay off all your credit cards.”

“O.K., I’m with you so far,” I said uncertainly.

“Now, because this mortgage is really ugly, your monthly payments will jump to about $3,700. But don’t worry about it, because you’re only going to stay in it for about three months. Once we pay off your credit cards, your credit scores will go up and we can get you a cheaper loan.”

The way Bob figured it, my monthly payment would be down to about $3,200 by the fall. The new mortgage would be nearly $700 more than my current mortgage because it would include all my credit-card debt, but it would be at least $500 a month less than the combined total of what I was paying on everything right then. And mortgage interest, unlike interest on credit-card debt, is entirely tax-deductible.

The whole plan worked exactly as Bob had predicted. Within a few weeks, an appraiser valued our house at $505,000, almost 10 percent above the original purchase price two years earlier. On June 12, Patty and I signed a new mortgage for $472,000 with Fremont Investment and Loan in Santa Monica, Calif.

Fremont gave us a classic subprime loan. Our monthly payment jumped to $3,700 from $2,500. If we kept the mortgage for two years, the interest rate would jump as high as 11.5 percent, and the monthly payments would ratchet up to as high as $4,500.

The paperwork was so confusing that I was never exactly sure who was paying what. I hazily understood that I was paying most of the fees, one way or another, but I couldn’t figure out how, and I couldn’t see any better alternatives. After it was all over, I figured we had paid about $5,800 in fees to Bob’s mortgage company and the settlement company, on top of the sales commission that came out in higher interest rates every month. But Patty and I paid off our credit cards, and my credit scores jumped. In October 2006, Bob refinanced us once again, and our payments dropped just as he had predicted.

***

We were still loaded with debt, but we weren’t paying 27 percent interest rates on our credit cards. Patty was earning a solid salary, and I was earning extra money working overtime at The Times. If we were careful, we could meet our monthly expenses, chip away at our debt and even go out to dinner once in a while.

Our brief interlude of optimism and peace ended on Oct. 10, 2006, when Patty lost her job. “Don’t worry,” she said bravely. “This will not be like the first time I was looking for a job. I’ve learned so much since then, and I am going to find another job quickly.” In the meantime, she said, she could collect unemployment for six months. She would also cash out her retirement account, which had about $7,000 in it.

By any measure, the loss of Patty’s job was a financial catastrophe. We hadn’t yet gone more than 30 days delinquent on the mortgage, thanks, in part, to $15,000 I had borrowed shamefacedly from my mother after Patty stopped working. But we were behind on everything else. Bill collectors were calling six days a week, starting promptly at 8 a.m. “Telemarketers,” I would mumble when my son Matthew asked why we got so many robocalls from 800 numbers. Our stately little house looked increasingly trashy: peeling paint and broken screens on the front windows, crumbling concrete on the front stoop, a lawn that was mostly crabgrass. The furniture that Patty salvaged from her first marriage was falling apart. The cotton slipcovers on the sofa and armchair were in shreds. The frosted-crystal shade on a beloved Italian floor lamp was cracked. The dog had gnawed the leg on her Biedermeier chair.

The panic attack hit me around 2 a.m. on Patty’s birthday. It was Oct. 17, 2007, and I was lying in bed obsessing over bills that couldn’t be postponed and the money we didn’t have to pay them. Like many of my predawn fear cascades, this one had its start with a specific unpaid bill: $240 in traffic tickets — $140 for speeding, $50 each for expired tags and inspection. The fines would double if we didn’t pay them in less than a week. The tickets had uncorked the bottle on all the other “must pays”: the $400 electric bill with the cutoff date printed in red; the $220 cable/telephone/Internet bill for the past two months; the MasterCard and American Express bills — at least one of which had to be brought current or I wouldn’t even be able to travel for work. And of course, there was the $3,271 mortgage payment.

My panic circuitry was in fine form, connecting small debts to big ones, short-term problems to the bottomless abyss, private calamity to public shame. Once Patty was asleep and I was alone in the dark, the bottled-up fear reached the surface. I tossed from side to side, trying to figure out at least a triage plan for our bills. I was too fidgety to lie still in bed, but I was in no mood to actually sit down with the bills themselves. I climbed out of bed for a moment, then jumped back in. I couldn’t decide if I would rather feel confined or all alone.

Patty woke up, irritated by all my movement and my occasional moans of despair. “What’s the matter?” she asked.

“I can’t sleep,” I answered. “I’m panicking about money, because I don’t know how we’re going to pay all the bills that need to be paid right now.” I wanted her to take me in her arms and reassure me that everything would be O.K. But that wasn’t happening.

“There’s nothing you can do about it right now,” she answered sleepily.

“If this keeps on, we’re going to lose the house,” I persisted, sounding less panicked than petulant. If Patty wouldn’t give me comfort, then I wanted her to suffer alongside me. “I don’t know how we’re going to make it. We can’t go on like this.”

Patty had begged me to grant her a birthday reprieve from my nagging and kvetching over money issues. What I saw as an uncontrollable moment of panic, she saw as another deliberate attempt to browbeat her.

“I can’t believe you are doing this to me on my birthday,” she hissed in fury. “All I asked for was one day of peace — one day when you weren’t beating me over the head. And here it is, not even daylight yet, and you’re waking me up to berate me about money.”

“Son of a bitch, what did I do to you?” I asked, punching my pillow in the dark. “Do you think I enjoy having a panic attack? I can’t help what I’m feeling. I’m just scared out of my mind.”

“That’s it!” Patty snapped, getting out of bed and pulling on her robe. “I’m not going to listen to any more of this. I’m going to sleep downstairs.”

In the morning, she let me have it.

“You lied to me,” she told me as I got coffee. “You said that what I saw on the outside was pretty much what you were. But you’re completely different. If I had known what you were really like, I would never have come out here.”

Patty and I were hurtling toward bottom. We had been under so much strain for so long that we were often at each other’s throats, jeopardizing the love that brought us together in the first place. In November, four years after buying the house, we finally crossed our personal Rubicon and fell 30 days behind on our mortgage.

“The last thing Chase wants is to foreclose on your home,” JPMorgan Chase wrote us. It assured us that it wanted to “help” and was willing to evaluate us for a number of “alternatives.” If we didn’t “resolve” our payment delinquency, it politely warned, “you will lose your home.”

***

I took a certain pride that I outlasted two of my three mortgage lenders. American Home, my original lender, collapsed overnight when the financial markets first froze up in August 2007. Fremont, my second lender, was forced out of the mortgage business by federal regulators. That left me with JPMorgan Chase, one of the few big banks smart enough to sell off most of the subprime loans it financed. It still serviced my loan, but it wasn’t on the hook if I defaulted.

By the time that Patty and I fell behind, the rest of the world was falling apart so fast that Chase barely had time for us. Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers were gone. American International Group, one of the world’s biggest insurance conglomerates, received the biggest taxpayer-financed bailout in history. Citigroup was a zombie bank. All of them were brought down by the same mortgage madness that infected me.

When I first called Chase in October, a representative named Sarah said I didn’t qualify for a loan modification because I wasn’t yet 90 days past due. The only “loan modification” she could offer me was a “repayment plan” under which I paid $400 more per month for six months until I was current again.

“It sounds as if I would be better off waiting to fall 90 days behind,” I said. “I think I’ll wait for that.”

It took a while, but Patty and I found we could get past blaming each other. We had seen each other’s worst sides, but we were still together, and that helped us to get closer. We started listening to each other. Patty began to find her way in the work world, and I was learning that I didn’t have all the answers. And we saw how our children were thriving. My three sons transferred to schools in our neighborhood and made scores of friends. Emily, Patty’s daughter, was a sparkling 10-year-old who loved her home and her school as well as all her brothers. Even if we lost the house, we had gained in other ways.

I called Chase back in January, when I was 90 days past due. Another representative told me that I would automatically be evaluated for a loan modification.

“You should just wait until you hear from one of our negotiators,” he told me politely.

Another two months passed without anyone calling, so I tried again in late March.

“I’m sorry, but our analysts have been backed up,” yet another Chase rep told me, even more politely than the previous one. She said each analyst had about 500 distressed borrowers to deal with, and it had been taking about five weeks for customers to get a direct response. The delays seemed to be getting longer.

I was actually beginning to feel sorry for Chase. It seemed to be so flooded with defaulting borrowers that it didn’t have time to foreclose on my house. Eight months after my last payment to the bank, I am still waiting for the ax to fall.

Edmund L. Andrews is an economics reporter for The Times and the author of “Busted: Life Inside the Great Mortgage Meltdown,” which will be published next month by W.W. Norton and from which this article is adapted.



8.5.09

Economists React: Jobs Report Is ‘Less Bad’

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Economists React: Jobs Report Is ‘Less Bad’

Economists and others weigh in on the smaller-than-expected decline in U.S. payrolls and the increase in the unemployment rate.

  • We remain cautious on the employment front, as job losses typically continue for 3-6 months after the trough of economic output. That suggests a peak in joblessness towards the end of the fourth quarter 2009, a peak which would cap off two full years of consistent monthly payroll declines… There’s some hope at the end of the rainbow, but the economy will keep busy hunting down the leprechaun for a few more months before we get there. –Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott
  • Many are interpreting the April employment report as yet another sign that the economy is “stabilizing,” but the more accurate interpretation of these signs is that the economy’s pace of contraction is slowing, which is not quite the same as stability and s still a long way from the economy actually improving. –Richard F. Moody, Forward Capital
  • This is less bad than the 690,000 average in February and March, and both manufacturing and service losses slowed, but it is hardly a triumph or even a stabilization. It is terrible, as is the rise in the unemployment rate to 8.9% from 8.5%. Soaring unemployment is depressing wage gains… There’s much further to go here; seriously bad news because without wage gains people can’t deleverage unless they cut spending deeply. –Ian Shepherdson, High Frequency Economics
  • The details of the report were somewhat less encouraging than the headline number would suggest. The losses were equally split between the services producing and goods-producing sectors. The key catalyst for the improvement during the month was public sector hiring, as government payrolls added 72,000 jobs due to 2010 Census hiring… Taken together, this was a very strong report as it suggests that the pace of deterioration in the U.S. labor market may be easing. Notwithstanding, it is clearly evident that labor market conditions remain very dismal, and the growing difficulty of displaced workers in finding new jobs will continue to place further upward pressure on the unemployment rate, which is now at its highest level in over 25 years. –Millan L. B. Mulraine, TD Securities
  • The report is consistent with the notion that the pace of deterioration is slowing but we are still a long way from the point of stability in both the labor market and the broader economy. About 500,000 individuals will eventually be hired for a short period of time to conduct the 2010 Census. Most of these workers will show up in the payroll tally next spring and disappear by the late-summer or fall. However, because of controversy surrounding the accuracy of past census efforts, the government has implemented a special program to confirm residential addresses ahead of time. This resulted in 63,000 federal government hires in April and indications are that another 80,000 or so are likely to be hired for this task over the next few months. There is no indication of how long these workers will be needed. In any case, this is an important distortion that should be excluded from the payroll tally. Thus, the census-adjusted payroll result for April was -602,000. –David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley
  • Federal government employment was boosted by 66,000 due to hiring related to the decennial census to be conducted in 2010. Because this gain is unlikely to be repeated in subsequent months, the headline nonfarm payroll figure offers a misleading indication of the new trend in employment. We still believe the U.S. labor market is at an inflection point, but today’s employment report suggests the improvement may prove more gradual than we had hoped. –Nomura Global Economics
  • Taking into account the downward revisions to the prior months and the sharp increase in government employment, this is a weaker-than-expected report… Relating this report to the bank stress tests, the unemployment rate in April is already at the “alternative more adverse” average level assumed for the 2009 (and the rise in the insured unemployment rate since the April employment survey week suggests that if surveyed at the end of the month, the unemployment rate would probably be 9% or higher). –RDQ Economics
  • Sectoral shifts in the job market are becoming evident as private sector job gains are limited to secular growth areas such as education & healthcare while actual job gains are centered in the federal government. –John Silvia, Wachovia Economics Group
  • Given that the overall rate of decline in economic output is moderating from the 6% plus plunges recorded in the fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009, it is natural for nonfarm payrolls (which are a coincident economic indicator) to also start to drop at a lesser pace than seen during the truly horrific November-March span. We thus expect the reported private sector job declines to diminish in coming months. With that said, we still seem to be some time from stabilization in employment conditions, and even further from sustained growth in payrolls. –Joshua Shapiro, MFR Inc.
  • The massive hemorrhaging in the job market over the past four months has slowed and the worst is behind us. Job losses in most sectors slowed… Thanks to the economic stimulus program including innovative monetary policy, the economy could hit the bottom sometime around mid-year. The financial market has begun to stabilize and the credit flows throughout the economy are slowly improving… Even if the economy continues to show signs of improvement, businesses will cut jobs and trim fats to stay lean and mean in the immediate future. Employers want to make sure a sustained economic recovery is here before hiring. That time won’t come until sometime in 2010. –Sung Won Sohn, Smith School of Business and Economics

Compiled by Phil Izzo

3.5.09

10 Things Your Pharmacist Won't Tell You

10 Things Your Pharmacist Won't Tell You
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Copyrighted, SmartMoney.com. All Rights Reserved.
1. “I’m overworked and stressed out . . .”

It seems that doctors are prescribing a lot more medication than they used to. In 2007 pharmacists filled 3.8 billion prescriptions, up from 3.3 billion in 2002. Michael Negrete, CEO of the Pharmacy Foundation of California, says that some physicians may actually be prescribing drugs unnecessarily, say for the flu. “It’s easier and quicker than explaining to a patient why they don’t need an antibiotic,” Negrete says.
The upshot is that your pharmacist is probably working harder than she should be—Paul Lofholm, owner of two pharmacies in Marin County, Calif., says his pharmacists fill prescriptions at a rate of 80 to 100 per shift. “Pharmacists are stressed out,” says Frederick Mayer, a veteran pharmacist and president and CEO of the Pharmacists Planning Service in California, “and it’s getting worse.” One side effect is that most pharmacists don’t have the time to offer the counseling federal and state law require with each prescription. It’s not just a formality—a pharmacist’s recommendation for how and when to take a certain medication can go a long way, for example, in helping to decrease some of the adverse side effects of medication.

2. “. . . .which means I’m more error-prone.”

At first it was a bit of a mystery: When Daniel Hawkins of Danville, Calif., took the penicillin he was prescribed, he became violently ill. But days later it was discovered that he had mistakenly been given Zoloft, an antidepressant. It may sound like an isolated incident, but it happens all the time. In California alone, there were 433 complaints of prescription error filed with the state Pharmacy Board in 2007. Those inside the pharmacy industry blame such mix-ups on long hours, tough working conditions, and a shortage of qualified personnel.
Another big factor: the increasingly rapid pace of the work. “Things get so busy,” Mayer says, “that I have no time to look at the computer screen, or even to look inside the bottle and make sure that the pills I’m giving out are the right ones.” Pharmacists are also being asked to spend more time on administrative chores these days, especially those involved with insurance. “Add to that the small things—such as insurance companies only approving 30-day dosages at a time, causing more face time with each patient in the pharmacy, which only adds more to the administrative hassle,” says Lofholm. “It’s a spiraling effect, which means more distractions open up more room for error.”

3. “I don’t understand all my merchandise.”

With so many people taking an interest in alternative medicine these days, most pharmacies sell profitable herbal remedies right at the prescription counter. This setup encourages customers to make impulsive herbal purchases while picking up their prescriptions.
But many pharmacists are woefully uninformed about the complications that can develop when various drugs get taken in tandem. Even if your druggist sees you purchasing, say, the memory enhancer ginkgo biloba as you pick up a prescription for the blood thinner Coumadin, studies have shown that he may fail to recognize that the two taken together increase your risk of internal bleeding and stroke. “It is a problem,” says Varro E. Tyler, former professor emeritus at the Pharmacy School of Purdue University. “Herbs get sold in this country as dietary supplements and foods, but they are drugs. And all drugs have interactions.”
“Don’t buy dietary supplements, period,” says Larry Sasich, chair of the department of pharmacy practice at the LECOM School of Pharmacy in Erie, Pa. “They’re not regulated, so you have no idea if what you’re seeing on the label is really what is in the bottle.”

4. “My drug-swapping could make you sick.”

Pharmacists will sometimes switch up a patient’s medication from one manufacturer’s make to another without ever asking permission. And most of the time, it’s fine. But there are times when this practice can be dangerous, particularly in the case of epilepsy patients and some people on thyroid or heart medication. “Most people can use any manufacturer’s version of a product without problems, but there’s a small but significant number of people that cannot,” says Sandy Finucane, vice president of legal and government affairs for the Maryland-based Epilepsy Foundation. “Unfortunately, we don’t know who those people are until after they’ve experienced the side effects.”
Many epilepsy patients in particular have spent years trying to find the right drug and the right dosage to control their seizures, Finucane says, and a drug from an unfamiliar manufacturer can lead to unexpected side effects including seizures, blurred or double vision, or severe headaches. “Because the consequences of having a seizure are so dramatic, we want to do everything we can to avoid this,” Finucane says. Her suggestion: All epilepsy patients should inform their pharmacist of their condition and ask to have their records indicate that switching from one manufacturer to another is prohibited. “And if any questions come up, tell the pharmacist to call your doctor directly,” she says.

5. “Frankly, your private records aren’t all that private.”

While the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA), first enacted by Congress in 1996, has helped to better protect patients’ privacy over the years by ushering in a host of confidentiality laws, there are still some ways that information about your health and medication history can get disseminated without your knowledge. For example, drug companies are still paying pharmacists to access customers’ personal information for consumer marketing so that they can send out refill reminders or information about a new drug brand to patients.
But as the medical profession goes digital—with doctors’ sending prescriptions electronically to pharmacists and the use of information exchange networks, which allow doctors, pharmacists, and even nursing homes to access patients’ electronic medical records—industry experts are worried that HIPAA may have some troubling loopholes. “The HIPAA privacy rule was written at a time when we weren’t aggressively moving towards a networked health-care system, so we have to review that law and strengthen that law to protect consumer privacy,” says Leslie Harris, president of the Washington, D.C.–based Center for Democracy and Technology. “If too many people have access to that database, you’ve got a big problem.”
If you’re concerned, ask your physician or pharmacist up front what their privacy policies are and exactly who will have access to your medical records, says Christine Bechtel, vice president of eHealth Initiative, a nonprofit organization in Washington, D.C. Only those who are authorized and authenticated should be able to look at your records, she says.

6. “I can be pretty sneaky sometimes.”

It’s certainly not true of all pharmacists, but some have been known to resort to underhanded tricks in order to beef up their profit margins. Jim Sheehan, an associate U.S. attorney based in Philadelphia, experienced this firsthand when he was on vacation in Florida and came down with strep throat. A local pharmacist there inspected Sheehan’s prescription for antibiotics from a nearby urgent-care center and offered the following choice: Pay cash for the medicine and get it immediately, or run it through Sheehan’s insurance company and wait half an hour since he was from out of state. Sheehan, who specializes in prosecuting health-care fraud cases, had heard of this scam before. “The pharmacist figured that I had no idea of the retail price, and he would have charged me whatever he wanted,” he says. Sheehan opted to wait, and lo and behold, the process of checking with the insurance company took only a few minutes.
Other tricks he’s come across are equally dodgy. Sheehan says he’s seen pharmacists who buy deeply discounted drug samplesfrom doctors then turn around and sell them at retail prices. He also has encountered unethical druggists who will charge a customer her insurance plan’s $10 copayment even if the retail price for the drug is less than that.

7. “Paying out-of-pocket? The price of your prescription just went up.”

The pharmacy business should be all about uniformity. Go from drugstore to drugstore, and your prescription should have the same name, dosage, and instructions for use. But that’s not always the case when it comes to the cost of medication: A recent comparison of pharmacies found little consistency in the price of prescriptions. Why? There are differences in the cost of doing business— rents vary, as do other fixed expenses.
But there’s another factor at work, explains Larry Sasich: “The pharmacist has to figure out his break-even point.” Among the variables is the percentage of prescriptions filled that are covered by insurance. In pharmacies with a lot of covered customers, the break-even cost is shifted heavily to patients who are paying full price—generally, the elderly on Medicare or the working poor. “Pharmacists can’t push around a big HMO,” says Sasich, “but they can push around a little old lady.”

8. “This medication is stale.”

Most people don’t think that underworld crime figures can come between them and their Celebrex. Well, they haven’t heard of Anthony “Tony Ripe” Civella. In 1991 Civella was convicted of buying $1 million worth of discounted drugs that were supposed to go to nursing homes— where large quantities of medication are purchased at bulk prices and used quickly—but instead found their way to retail pharmacies (at a tidy profit for Tony Ripe). The problem is called “drug diversion.” In a typical case, crooked druggists buy diverted medication at reduced prices and in quantities far bigger than they’re legally allowed to handle; by the time the last of the shipment reaches consumers, the pills are long out of date.
The big losers in all this are consumers who end up with stale medication that hasn’t been properly stored, explains a spokesperson for the U.S. attorney’s office in Kansas City, Mo. There’s also a secondary price, since in the long run such practices raise the cost to the consumer. “Somewhere the drug manufacturers and wholesalers have to recoup their losses from having discounted drugs going to retail pharmacists,” the spokesperson says.

9. “I don’t just sell drugs. I make them.”

Say your five-year-old needs a medication that comes only in pill form. If you think he’ll do better with a liquid, you can ask your pharmacist to make the conversion himself—right there at the store. It’s called “compounding”—a traditional practice in which pharmacies combine, mix, or alter ingredients to create unique medications that meet specific needs of a patient—and when done right, it’s perfectly safe. But some pharmacists compound drugs that already exist—such as injectable morphine or hormonereplacement- therapy meds, for example— because it’s cheaper. “They do that so they can make more money,” says Larry Sasich. “Only the dangers get passed on, none of the savings.”
The bottom line: If the product is available commercially, you’re better off getting it that way. “Pharmacists don’t [compound] under good manufacturing guidelines; they do it in the back of their shops,” says Sasich, advising that “if you can buy the FDA product, you should.”

10. “You can get any prescription you like online.”

Go on the Internet to buy medicine, and you’ll probably save some time and money. But be careful. While there are many legitimate websites that sell prescriptions, such as RxSolutions. com, there are also countless dubious operations in cyberspace, which tend to specialize in “lifestyle drugs” like Viagra and Propecia. In lieu of requiring a doctor’s prescription, these rogue sites offer e-physicals in which you answer questions to determine whether or not you should be taking the medication in question. Not only is this illegal, it’s dangerous. “Viagra can kill a man with a heart condition,” says Mark Herr, former director of the New Jersey Division of Consumer Affairs. “You should not be buying Viagra online if you do not have a doctor prescribing it.”

When purchasing prescription medication online, look for an insignia bearing the initials VIPPS—which stand for Verified Internet Pharmacy Practice Sites—to find reputable sellers.

Copyrighted, SmartMoney.com. All Rights Reserved.

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