9.12.08

World could face a decade-long slump: Krugman


(SOURCE: www.timesofindia.com)


9 Dec 2008, 1603 hrs IST, REUTERS


Nice to be right on the money along with Nobel laureate (like Japanese 1990’s economy)


STOCKHOLM: The world economy will likely feel the impact of the global financial turmoil for another three years at least, the 2008 winner of Nobel economics prize Paul Krugman said on Monday.

"We could easily be talking about a world economy that is depressed into 2011 and even beyond," the Princeton University professor and New York Times columnist told reporters in Stockholm, where he will receive his Nobel prize this week.

"The scenario I fear is that we'll see for the whole world the equivalent of Japan's lost decade in the 1990s, that we'll see a world of zero interest rates and inflation and no sign of recovery and it will just go on for a very, very extended period," he said.

"On top of that, we'll have a series of extremely severe crises in particular countries in trouble," he predicted, pointing out that "we certainly see the roots of ... Argentina- or Indonesia-style crises ... particularly in the European periphery."

As for the United States, Krugman, who has previously said that a stimulus plan of at least four percent of the US gross domestic product is needed next year, said on Monday that amount might not be enough.

"If you're serious about the size of the hole that needs to be filled, that's actually modest," he said, stressing that that amount "is not enough to prevent a further decline in the economy. It's enough to prevent a sharp decline."

The falling US housing market, which triggered the global financial crisis, will probably continue to weaken, he said, pointing out that recent estimates show "we have another 10 to 15 percent to go."

Krugman, who won the Nobel prize for his work on the impact of free trade and globalisation, said Washington should not hesitate to spend on infrastructure that would provide long-term benefit to the country, even if it means running up a high deficit in the short term.

"We're probably in the US going to run a deficit of seven or eight percent of GDP next year. That's clearly not something you can do indefinitely," he said.

"If it's two years of massive stimulus and massive debts, that's okay. If it's two years of that, and no sign that anything is getting better then I start to worry," he added.

Krugman will receive his Nobel gold medal and diploma along with 10 million Swedish kronor (1.2 million dollars, 929,000 euros) at a formal prize ceremony in Stockholm on December 10.

Half of rescued borrowers default anyway

Half of rescued borrowers default anyway

Top federal regulator says many mortgages that are modified end up in default within 6 months.

By Tami Luhby, CNNMoney.com senior writer

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- More than half of delinquent homeowners whose mortgages were modified earlier this year ended up redefaulting within six months, a top bank regulator said Monday.

Some 53% of borrowers with loans modified in the first three months of 2008 and 51% of those with loans modified in the second quarter could not keep up with payments within six months, according to U.S. Comptroller John Dugan, who spoke at a housing conference.

The report, which will be released in full next week, covers nearly 35 million loans worth a total of $6 trillion -- or 60% of all primary mortgages in the United States.

The high redefault rate raises concerns about the long-term effectiveness of loan modifications, which many are pushing as a key solution to the nation's financial crisis.

A record 1.35 million homes are in foreclosure, while the number of borrowers who have fallen behind on their payments soared to a record 6.99%, the Mortgage Bankers Association said last week.

Meanwhile, 1.7 million homeowners have been helped in 2008 through the Hope Now Alliance, a coalition of lenders, servicers, investors and counselors working with delinquent borrowers on modifications and repayment plans.

Dugan said the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency is asking servicers for more details on the loans in his report to determine what went wrong. He wants to know whether the modifications reduced the monthly payments to affordable levels or whether the borrowers had too much other debt to keep their head above water.

"These answers are important, because they have important ramifications for the foreclosure crisis and how policymakers should address loan modifications, as they surely will in the coming weeks and months," Dugan said.

Other regulators speaking at the conference questioned the quality of the loan modifications, saying that early efforts to restructure loans were not very effective. Many simply tacked on the missed payments and penalties to the end of the loan.

"The quality of the modifications are not what they should be," said FDIC Chairwoman Sheila Bair, a vocal proponent of adjusting loans by reducing interest rates, extending loan terms and deferring principal. Also, verifying income is very important.

Modifications that include an interest rate reduction have a 15% redefault rate, said Bair, citing a recent Credit Suisse study.

Last month, Bair unveiled a plan to address the foreclosure crisis by modifying loans to as low as 31% of a borrower's gross monthly income. This could be done by setting interest rates to as low as 3% or extending loan terms to 40 years. Principal could also be deferred free of interest to the end of the loan.

To entice servicers and investors to participate, Bair's plan calls for the government would share up to 50% of losses should the loan redefault. But that guarantee only kicks in after the borrower has made six monthly payments to better ensure the mortgage modification is sustainable long-term. It would cost $24.4 billion, which Bair has said could come from the rescue funds.

Bair's efforts have been widely praised, but the Bush administration has yet to act on it.

As the housing crisis continues to spin out of control, lawmakers, economists and community activists are increasingly demanding that financial institutions and the Bush administration do more to help homeowners by modifying loans to affordable monthly payments.

In recent months, banks and federal agencies such as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) have stepped up efforts to adjust loans so that payments are no more than 38% of a borrower's monthly income.

Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass, who heads the powerful House Financial Services Committee, said Monday that Congress will not give the Bush administration the $350 billion left in the $700 billion financial system bailout package unless loan modifications are part of the plan.

However, other regulators said that federal money may be better spent on economic stimulus and job creation since a growing number of foreclosures are caused by unemployment. In those cases, loan modifications won't help.

The unemployment rate soared to 6.7% and is expected to go higher with companies announcing massive downsizings almost daily.

"I have to wonder whether or not focusing on job creation..is a better way to focus federal dollars than on a loan modification process that may be only partially effective," said John Reich, director of the Office of Thrift Supervision. To top of page


7.12.08

I have been saying this for 6 months Thank You Mr. President

Obama: Economy to get worse before it improves

By DAVID ESPO, AP Special Correspondent David Espo, Ap Special Correspondent Sun Dec 7, 10:36 pm ET

WASHINGTON – President-elect Barack Obama said Sunday the economy will get worse before it gets better, pledged a recovery plan "equal to the task" and warned lawmakers that the days of pork barrel spending are over.

Less than six weeks before his inauguration, Obama declined to say how large an economic stimulus plan he envisions. He said his blueprint for recovery will include help for homeowners facing foreclosure on their mortgages if President George W. Bush has not acted by Inauguration Day, Jan. 20.

"We've got to provide a blood infusion to the patient right now to make sure that the patient is stabilized. And that means that we can't worry short term about the deficit. We've got to make sure that the economic stimulus plan is large enough to get the economy moving," he said.

Obama made his comments on NBC's "Meet the Press," in his most extensive interview since winning the White House more than a month ago, and later at a news conference in Chicago.

The president-elect said it is important that domestic carmakers survive the current crisis, although he accused the industry's executives of taking a "head in the sand approach" that has prevented their companies from becoming more competitive.

"Congress is doing the exact right thing by asking for a conditions-based assistance package that holds the industry's feet to the fire and gives the industry some short-term assistance," he said.
In addition to the policy issues, Obama avoided a direct answer when asked whether he has quit cigarettes as he prepares to move into a no-smoking White House.

"I have done a terrific job, under the circumstances, of making myself much healthier. And I think that you will not see any violations of these rules in the White House," he said.

Obama called the news conference to introduce retired Gen. Eric Shinseki as his choice to head the Veterans Affairs Department. Shinseki, who was a four-star general, was forced into retirement five years ago by the Bush administration after saying the president's plans to invade Iraq required more troops.

Shinseki pledged to build a "smooth, error-free, no-fail benefits-assured transition" back to civilian life for veterans.

Twice in the opening moments of the NBC interview, the president-elect said the economic situation "is going to get worse before it gets better," an unspoken plea with voters to have patience as the incoming administration tries to grapple with the issue.

He announced plans Saturday for the largest public works spending program since the creation of the interstate highway system a half-century ago, although he said aides are still debating among themselves how much it should cost.

"What we need to do is examine, what are the projects where we're going to get the most bang for the buck? How are we going to make sure taxpayers are protected? You know, the days of just pork coming out of Congress as a strategy, those days are over," he said.

Some lawmakers have mentioned an economic aid plan in the range of $500 billion or higher, and Democratic leaders say they hope to have legislation ready soon after Jan. 20.

The economic indicators have darkened since Obama's election, and Friday's report that 533,000 jobs were lost in November was the worst performance in more than 30 years. Unemployment stands at 6.7 percent, retailers are reporting weak holiday sales and the credit markets have yet to recover from the freeze that led Congress to approve a $700 billion bailout before the election.

Turning to foreign policy, the president-elect sidestepped a question about the pace of a troop withdrawal from Iraq, saying he would direct U.S. generals to come up with a plan "for a responsible drawdown." He said in the campaign he wanted most U.S. troops withdrawn within 16 months, but did not say then, nor has he now, how large a deployment should be left behind.

"We are going to maintain a large enough force in the region to assure that our civilian troops or our civilian personnel and our embassies are protected, to make sure that we can ferret out any remaining terrorist activity in the region" and providing training support for Iraqi personnel.

He did not respond directly when asked whether he believes India should have the right to pursue terrorist targets inside Pakistan in the wake of the deadly attacks in Mumbai. He also said he wants to "reset U.S.-Russian relations" following the Bush era.

"They are increasingly assertive and when it comes to Georgia and their threats against their neighboring countries I think they've been acting in a way that's contrary to international norms," he said of Kremlin leaders.

The president-elect declined to comment on the possible appointment of Caroline Kennedy to New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's seat in the Senate. Obama tapped Clinton recently as his secretary of state.

___
Associated Press writers Stephen Ohlemacher in Washington and Philip Elliott in Chicago contributed to this report.
Copyright © 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
Copyright © 2008 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved.

5.12.08

Spot on prediction for Dec, 2008 (6.7% Unemployment)

Employers cut 533K jobs in Nov., most in 34 years

WASHINGTON – Skittish employers slashed 533,000 jobs in November, the most in 34 years, catapulting the unemployment rate to 6.7 percent, dramatic proof the country is careening deeper into recession.

The new figures, released by the Labor Department Friday, showed the crucial employment market deteriorating at an alarmingly rapid clip, and handed Americans some more grim news right before the holidays. The net loss of more than a half-million jobs was far worse than analysts expected.

As companies throttled back hiring, the unemployment rate bolted from 6.5 percent in October to 6.7 percent last month, a 15-year high.

"These numbers are shocking," said economist Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economics Advisors. "Companies are sharply reacting to the economy's problems and slashing costs. They are not trying to ride it out."

The unemployment rate would have moved even higher if not for the exodus of 422,000 people from the work force. Economists said many of those people probably abandoned their job searches out of sheer frustration. In November 2007, the jobless rate was at 4.7 percent.

The U.S. tipped into recession last December, a panel of experts declared earlier this week, confirming what many Americans already thought.

Since the start of the recession, the economy has lost 1.9 million jobs, the number of unemployed people increased by 2.7 million and the jobless rate rose by 1.7 percentage points. More evidence that the labor pain is far from over came Friday when General Motors Corp. said it will lay off another 2,000 workers as it cuts shifts at three car factories starting in February due to slowing demand for their products.

President George W. Bush, who used the word "recession" for the first time to describe the economy's state, pledged Friday to explore more efforts to ease housing, credit and financial stresses.

"There is still more work to do," Bush said. "My administration is committed to ensuring that our economy succeeds."

President-elect Barack Obama said the dismal job news underscored the need for forceful action, even as he warned that the pain could not be quickly relieved.

"There are no quick or easy fixes to this crisis ... and it's likely to get worse before it gets better," Obama said. "At the same time, this ... provides us with an opportunity to transform our economy to improve the lives of ordinary people by rebuilding roads and modernizing schools for our children, investing in clean energy solutions to break our dependence on imported oil, and making an early down payment on the long-term reforms that will grow and strengthen our economy for all Americans for years to come."

To provide relief, the Bush administration will continue to concentrate on ways to bust through a credit jam that is feeding prominently into the economy's problems, Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez told The Associated Press in an interview. "We're going to stay focused on that like a laser," he said.

Elsewhere Friday, the Mortgage Bankers Association said a record one in 10 American homeowners with a mortgage were either at least a month behind on their payments or in foreclosure at the end of September. The percentage of loans at least a month overdue or in foreclosure was up from 9.2 percent in the April-June quarter, and from 7.3 percent a year earlier.

On Wall Street, stocks slid. The Dow Jones industrials were down 130 points in afternoon trading.

Job losses last month were widespread, hitting factories, construction companies, financial firms, retailers, leisure and hospitality, and others industries. The few places where gains were logged included the government, education and health services.

The loss of 533,000 payroll jobs was much deeper than the 320,000 job cuts economists were forecasting. The rise in the unemployment rate, however, wasn't as steep as the 6.8 percent rate they were expecting. Taken together, though, the employment picture clearly darkening.

The job reductions were the most since a whopping 602,000 positions were slashed in December 1974, when the country was in a severe recession.

All told, 10.3 million people were left unemployed as of November, while the number of employed was 144.3 million.

Gary Cope, 33, this week lost his communications job at Roanoke, Va.-based high-tech research and development company Luna Innovations Inc.

Cope was called into a meeting first thing Thursday morning with two administrators and a human resources representative. Their message: He was being laid off, for financial reasons, effective immediately.

He left with a box of his belongings and about two months' severance. As Cope walked out the door, all he could think was, "I have a 3-year-old son and I'm a single dad."

"I came home and did my initial pity party, then I got myself together, talked to my family and went right to work" rewriting his resume and sending it out, Cope said. "My family has been very supportive, they've let me know I'll get through this and they won't let me drown."

Job losses in September and October also turned out to be much worse. Employers cut 403,000 jobs in September, versus 284,000 previously estimated. Another 320,000 were chopped in October, compared with an initial estimate of 240,000.

Employers are slashing costs as they cope with sagging appetites from customers in the U.S. and in other countries, which are struggling with their own economic troubles.

The carnage — including the worst financial crisis since the 1930s — is hitting a wide range of companies.

In recent days, AT&T Inc., DuPont, JPMorgan Chase & Co., as well as jet engine maker Pratt & Whitney, a subsidiary of United Technologies Corp., and mining company Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. announced layoffs.

Fighting for their survival, the chiefs of Chrysler LLC, General Motors and Ford Motor Co. returned to Capitol Hill Friday to again ask lawmakers for as much as $34 billion in emergency aid.

Workers with jobs saw modest wage gains. Average hourly earnings rose to $18.30 in November, a 0.4 percent increase from the previous month. Over the year, wages have grown 3.7 percent, but paychecks haven't stretched that far because of high prices for energy, food and other items.

Worn-out consumers battered by the job losses, shrinking nest eggs and tanking home values have retrenched, throwing the economy into a tailspin. As the unemployment rate continues to move higher, consumers will burrow further, dragging the economy down even more, a vicious cycle that Washington policymakers are trying to break.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is expected ratchet down a key interest rate — now near a historic low of 1 percent — by as much as a half-percentage point on Dec. 16 in a bid to breathe life into the moribund economy. Bernanke is exploring other economic revival options and wants the government to step up efforts to curb home foreclosures.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, whose department oversees the $700 billion financial bailout program, also is weighing new initiatives such as tapping the second half of that rescue money to ease the economic crisis.

Obama, who takes office on Jan. 20, has called for a massive economic recovery bill to generate 2.5 million jobs over his first two years in office. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has vowed to have a package ready on Inauguration Day for Obama's signature.

The measure, which could total $500 billion, would bankroll big public works projects to create jobs, provide aid to states to help with Medicaid costs, and provide money toward renewable energy development.

At 12 months and counting, the recession is longer than the 10-month average length of recessions since World War II. The record for the longest recession in the postwar period is 16 months, which was reached in the 1973-75 and 1981-82 downturns. The current recession might end up matching that or setting a record in terms of duration, analysts say.

The 1981-82 recession was the worst in terms of unemployment since the Great Depression. The jobless raterose as high as 10.8 percent in late 1982, just as the recession ended, before inching down.

Given the current woes, the jobless rate could rise as high as 8.5 percent by the end of next year, some analysts predict. Still, the unemployment rate often peaks after a recession has ended. That's because companies are reluctant to ramp up hiring until they feel certain the recovery has staying power.

 

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