Clues to election result could come early

Trends in the race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain could become clear soon after the first polls begin to close at 6 p.m. EST in Indiana.

The next round of tests is at 7 p.m. EST when voting ends in Georgia, parts of Florida and the battleground state of Virginia.

At 7:30 p.m. EST, polls close in the states of Ohio and North Carolina.

By 8 p.m. EST, all polls in Florida will be closed.

Voting in Pennsylvania, which has 21 electoral votes, also ends at 8 p.m. EST.

The first crucial Senate showdown is in Kentucky, where Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell is in a tough fight for re-election and, like Indiana, polls begin to close at 6 p.m. EST.

(source http://www.reuters.com)

My Friends, THAT WON 250+D, 59+D, 390 (+10%) BO

Election Night Predictions
November 02, 2008 9:36 AMJennifer Parker-->
This morning on our This Week Roundtable we made our predictions for Tuesday night's outcome:
Mark Halperin, Time Magazine: Electoral Vote -- 349 ObamaSenate -- 58 Democratic seatsHouse -- Democrats net 28 House seats
Matthew Dowd, former Republican strategist:Electoral Vote -- 338 plus ObamaSenate -- 8 plus pick ups for DemocratsHouse -- 17 plus pick ups for Democrats
George Will, ABC News contributor: Electoral Vote -- 378 ObamaSenate -- 8 pick ups for the DemocratsHouse -- 21 pick ups for the Democrats
Donna Brazile, former Democratic strategist: Electoral Vote -- Obama 343Senate - Democrats 59 plus runoffHouse - Democrats pick up 29
Here are my predictions ...
George Stephanopoulos:Electoral Vote -- 353 ObamaSenate -- 58 DemocratsHouse -- House Democrats pick up 28 seats
Those are our predictions. What are yours?
--George Stephanopoulos

End of An Error - New New Deal - 250+D, 59+D, and BO

RealClearPolitics Poll Averages

General Election: McCain vs. Obama

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Obama (D)	McCain (R)	Spread
RCP Average	10/25 - 10/30	--	--	50.0	43.5	Obama +6.5
Rasmussen Reports	10/28 - 10/30	3000 LV	2.0	51	47	Obama +4
Gallup (Traditional)*	10/28 - 10/30	2116 LV	2.0	51	43	Obama +8
Gallup (Expanded)*	10/28 - 10/30	2459 LV	2.0	52	43	Obama +9
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby	10/28 - 10/30	1201 LV	2.9	50	43	Obama +7
Diageo/Hotline	10/28 - 10/30	870 LV	3.6	48	41	Obama +7
Marist	10/29 - 10/29	543 LV	4.5	50	43	Obama +7
GWU/Battleground	10/27 - 10/30	800 LV	3.5	49	45	Obama +4
ABC News/Wash Post	10/27 - 10/30	1580 LV	2.5	53	44	Obama +9
FOX News	10/28 - 10/29	924 LV	3.0	47	44	Obama +3
IBD/TIPP	10/26 - 10/30	894 LV	3.0	48	44	Obama +4
CBS News/NY Times	10/25 - 10/29	1005 LV	--	52	41	Obama +11

Zogby Poll - Take it with a pound of salt

I totally agree

On the eve of the 2004 election, Zogby predicted that John Kerry would beat President Bush, a move he now attributes to "hubris and naivete."

After Bush won, Zogby says, "I wasn't in a fetal position, but I vowed I wouldn't do that again. And I haven't."

As you probably know, I have a significant critique of Zogby's weighting mechanism, which assumes that the partisan identification breakdown will be roughly equal to 2004, when about the same number of Democrats and Republicans turned out for the election. Neverthless, McCain also improved slightly in the Research 2000, IBD/TIPP, and ABC/Post polls. On the other hand, Barack Obama gained a point in Hotline and the Gallup "Likely Voters II" model (though not Gallup's "traditional" likely voter model), and remains at his high-water mark in Rasmussen.

(SOURCE http://www.washingtonpost.com, http://www.fivethirtyeight.com)

Sen. Sarah Palin?

(http://www.electoral-vote.com/)

Should Stevens be reelected and the Democrats move to expel him from the Senate in January, Republican senators would have to vote on the expulsion motion, something few of them particularly want to do as a vote either way will offend many Republicans. For them, the best-case scenario is that Stevens wins reelection, and then resigns, forcing a special election to fill the seat. This election would probably pit Sarah Palin against Mark Begich, something Palin has a decent chance of winning. Of course, if Begich wins on Tuesday, it doesn't make a huge difference if Stevens leaves the Senate now or on January 5, other than a couple of votes if the Senate is called back in session after the election.