
Expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates, combined with an unexpected drop in crude supplies last week, could finally send oil prices over $100 a barrel.
The Fed is widely expected to approve a quarter-point cut in short-term borrowing rates this afternoon, a move that could further weaken the dollar and act as an enticement to buy oil.
Because oil is priced in dollars, a weaker U.S. currency makes oil cheaper for those in other countries to convert their currency and buy crude. That increased buying sends oil prices even higher.
In the meantime, a report on oil supplies showed crude stocks down 3.9 million barrels, news that stunned a market looking for an increase of 600,000 barrels.
It all adds up to more price pressure on oil
[US@CL.1 94.19
3.81 (+4.22%)
], which surged to a record high of $93.80 on Monday and is just below that level today. Some analysts believe the $100 threshold is now well within sight of speculators who have been aggressively betting up oil prices.
"I think that's entirely possible," said Randy Ollenberger, managing director at BMO Capital Markets. The Fed rate cut "is going to lead to further weakness in the US dollar. There's obviously going to be a great correlation between oil prices moving higher and the dollar moving lower."
Analysts generally have oil fundamentals calling for a price between $75 to $80 a barrel.
But a rash of speculation driven primarily by geopolitical tensions has kept prices inflated. Javad Yarjani, an Iranian oil official with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, warned of an oil "bubble" that would pop.
Today's supply data, though, indicated that the oil rally could have more legs.
"Everybody wants to pick a number," said Mike Theesfeld, a trader with HPR Commodities.
"I wouldn't be surprised to see $95."(http://www.cnbc.com)
But some market observers have expressed concerns that with oil prices rising above $90, inflation may still be a threat. So the Fed could be making a mistake by lowering interest rates further, some maintain.
NEW YORK (AP) -- Merrill Lynch's departing chief executive, Stan O'Neal, will walk away with $161.5 million in stock, options and retirement benefits, the company said Tuesday.
O'Neal left with a $131.4 million equity package of stock, options and restricted stock. His restricted stock and restricted stock units will continue to vest on their original schedules, the company said.
He also has retirement benefits worth $24.7 million, while his deferred compensation stands at $5.4 million, according to the company. He will be entitled to an office and an executive assistant for up to three years.
O'Neal's restricted stock and options holdings mean he could do even better if the stock rises under a new CEO, said James F. Reda, a compensation consultant. A $10 jump in the stock under new management could mean $30 million for O'Neal.
O'Neal, the second-highest paid Wall Street CEO in 2006, retired from Merrill Lynch & Co. on Tuesday, almost a week after the investment bank reported its largest-ever quarterly loss. The $2.24 billion loss was precipitated by a $7.9 billion third-quarter writedown, as the company revalued assets backed by shaky mortgages. O'Neal's ouster was expected after the loss.
There is some precedent for such an ironic windfall. After Michael Eisner was ousted as CEO at The Walt Disney Co. in 2005, he made another $100 million when the company's stock price improved under his replacement, Reda said.
"It's a funny dynamic," Reda said.
But Reda questioned both the size of O'Neal's package and why Merrill made O'Neal, 56, eligible for retirement even as he ran the company. The policy guaranteed O'Neal so much money that "he was basically indifferent," Reda said.
O'Neal's parting wealth comes after he spent five years as Merrill's (Charts, Fortune 500) CEO, earning nearly top dollar. O'Neal's 2006 pay was approximately $48 million, second on Wall Street only to the $54.3 million earned by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. CEO Lloyd C. Blankfein.Thursday, October 25, 2007

One-third of Americans are living with extreme stress and nearly half of Americans (48 percent) believe that their stress has increased over the past five years, according to a survey released by the American Psychological Association.
The national survey also found that stress is taking a toll on people — contributing to health problems, poor relationships and lost productivity at work.
Money and work are the leading causes of stress for 75 percent of Americans, a dramatic increase over the 59 percent reporting the same sources of stress in 2006.
The Stress in America survey is part of APA's Mind/Body Health Public Education Campaign.
Fifty-one percent of Americans blame "the housing crisis" as a leading cause of stress, citing high rent or mortgage costs as sources of this stress.
The French Lesson In Health Care |
| The nation's system isn't quite as superb as Sicko maintains, but it's pretty good |
Up to two million US families could lose their home in the next year
If the Fed doesn't act decisively, the economy is at risk of calamity
Peter Morici, EconomisUniversity of Maryland
Sales of new and used homes are at record lows as lenders tighten up on who they will give mortgages to.
"You won't see positive growth in residential investment until the end of 2008, but that only makes up 5% of the US economy.
29 Oct 2007, 0144 hrs IST LONDON/NEW DELHI: International apparel major GAP said on Sunday that it was withdrawing garments sourced from India from its 3,000 stores following allegations of use of child labour by one of the company's vendors in the capital's Shahpur Jat area, possibly setting the stage for retaliation by the Indian government. GAP's action followed an undercover investigation by a British newspaper purportedly showing the use of child labour to manufacture smocked blouses that were headed for shelves in the company's US and European stores ahead of Christmas. The report said that children as young as 10 years old were working for a GAP sub-contractor and complained of working long hours, going unpaid and being subjected to threats and beatings. A 10-year-old boy, filmed making clothes, told the British paper that he had been sold by his family to the factory owner. The boy was said to have been working for four months without pay and would not be allowed to leave the job until the fee his family received had been recovered. The government reacted to the news cautiously with commerce minister Kamal Nath saying his officials would investigate the matter. Though he refrained from commenting on the case till "it has been thoroughly probed", the minister cautioned against the use of non-tariff barriers, like raking up the issue of child labour, as a protectionist device by the developed countries. He warned of retaliation if investigations established that fresh trade barriers were being erected, as was found in Bangalore recently. "I have already written to EU trade commissioner Peter Mandelson (on October 23) about non-tariff barriers being used as a protectionist device," Nath told TOI. The hand-stitched tops, which were to be sold for around £20 in the Christmas season, are now being withdrawn. In response to the findings, GAP released a statement saying it was "unacceptable" for children to produce its clothing. "It is clear that one of our vendors violated this agreement, and a full investigation is under way.... After learning of this situation, we immediately took steps to stop this work order and to prevent the product from ever being sold in our stores. We are also convening a meeting of our suppliers where we will reinforce our prohibition on child labour," it said in a statement. |
In addition, Barakat believes that today's news revealing signs of a weak economy - including a fall in durable goods and slow housing sales - makes it nearly certain the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week, pushing the dollar lower and commodity prices higher.